Affected by macro factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, hyperinflation, and the epidemic, the global smartphone market will continue to decline in 2022. Sigmaintell expects global smartphone shipments to be about 1.2 billion units in 2022, down about 8% YoY. The global economy is expected to enter a mild recession due to adverse factors such as the rising Federal Reserve rate and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The global smartphone is also expected to show a stable shipment trend in 2023 without stimulating factors. There are no obvious drivers to push up global market growth in the short term.
The external environment deteriorated, and demand continued to decline. The high-end market has become the focus of domestic makers' competition.
Most of the top set makers are currently in the inventory de-stocking cycle under the influence of high inventory. According to Sigmaintell’s data, worldwide smartphone shipments in the first half of 2022 were about 580 mil., down about 9.2% YoY, with shipments of low-end phones (below $500) down about 10.4% YoY and high-end phones ($500 and above) down about 5.5% YoY. In the background of the market prosperity index downward, the mid to high end market risk resistance is stronger, and the low-end market is more impact than the high-end market. In this context, in the second half of 2022 to 2023, the set makers will gradually adjust their operation strategies. The high-end market will become the focus of the maker’s competition.
The inspiration of Apple's "Dynamic Island" is that the "starting point" and "final point" of product design should still revolve around "user experience,” and technology orientation should support the process.
In the smartphone market, Apple still occupies a major share of the high-end market. According to Sigmaintell’s data, in the first half of 2022, Apple accounts for about 60% market share of smartphones above $500. With the release of the iPhone 14 series scheduled, the innovation of "Dynamic Island" - the combination of software and hardware with innovative design has brought new high-end thinking to domestic makers.
In the past two years, the high-end product of domestic brands has mainly revolved around improving hardware strength such as screens and cameras, making the high-end trend of domestic makers difficult. The strategy deviated from the center of user demands and turned to technology-oriented, which still mainly stays at the hardware level.
New techs such as foldable are still the focus of high-end breakthroughs for domestic makers.
In 2019, Samsung and Huawei were the first players to enter the foldable market. After nearly four years of development, the foldable phone market has ushered in multi-player competition. At present, the strength of domestic high-end is mainly in the breakthrough of foldable type. The currently released foldable products, especially the book-shape foldable phone, are positioned as super flagships in terms of the phone’s specification and technology difficulty, so the price is at the top tier in each brand’s products. The active layout of domestic makers in the field of the foldable, on the one hand, hopes to pull up the overall market through the new tech, and on the other hand, hopes to improve product maturity and seize the market share of the foldable as soon as possible.
According to Sigmaintell’s data, the global shipments of foldable phones in the first half of 2022 were about six mil., and it will reach 14 mil. in 2022, a YoY increase of about 13%. At the same time, the global shipments of foldable phones will reach nearly 30 mil. in 2023, showing a doubling trend.
With the gradual maturity of foldable technology, set makers present two tech routes in the layout of foldable products. The first is to give up dimension and weight to pursue the ultimate hardware. This kind of design is more business-oriented and is aimed at consumers who have high requirements for performance. The second is to follow a thin, light dimension and give up the top-tier hardware. This design ensures the high-end positioning of the foldable while improving the portability and user experience, allowing foldable phones to explore more markets.
Back to Apple and Huawei. It is not difficult to find that for successful high-end products, hardware is only the foundation, and personalized design, humanized user experience, and interactive ecology are the keys to reflecting the high-end brand. For high-end domestic products, stable product hardware quality is an essential first step. Based on it, thinking from the user's point of view and improving the interaction design can gradually enhance the brand image. The high-end domestic breakthrough, after all, is to get rid of the "hardware stacking" and return to brand recognition and user experience.
中文：
苹果“灵动岛”的启示——国产高端智能手机破局势在必行
受俄乌战争、超级通胀以及新冠疫情等宏观因素影响，2022年全球智能手机市场持续走低，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预计，2022年全球智能手机出货量约12亿部，同比下降约8%。同时受到美国加息，俄乌冲突持续等不利因素影响，全球经济预计进入温和衰退走势，在没有显著因素的刺激推动下，预计2023年全球智能手机也将呈现稳定的出货走势，市场短期内无明显驱动力推升大盘增长。
外围环境恶化，需求持续走低，高端市场成为国产厂商角力重点
目前头部手机生产商大多处于高库存影响下的库存去化周期。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，2022年上半年全球智能手机出货量约为5.8亿部，同比下降约9.2%，其中中低端手机（500美金以下）出货量同比下降约10.4%，高端手机（500美金及以上）同比下降约5.5%。可见在市场景气度下行的大背景下，中高端市场抗风险能力显然更强，低端市场受到的冲击明显大于高端市场，在此背景下，预计2022年下半年到2023年，整机厂商将逐步调整经营策略，高端市场将成为厂商角力重点。
苹果“灵动岛”的启示，产品设计的“出发点”和“最终点”仍然要围绕“用户体验”，技术导向为过程支持
当下的智能手机市场，苹果依旧占据高端市场的主要份额，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，2022年上半年500美元以上档位的智能手机出货比例中，苹果约占60%的市场份额，iPhone 14系列的如期发布，“灵动岛”的脑洞创新——软硬件结合创新设计，为国产厂商带来了新的高端破局思考。
近两年，国产品牌高端化之路主要围绕屏幕、镜头等硬件实力的提升，使得国产厂商的高端化之路略显艰难，偏离了用户诉求中心，转为技术诉求导向，仍主要停留在硬件层面。
折叠等新形态依然是国产厂商高端化突破重点
2019年三星、华为首批入局折叠屏市场，经过近4年的发展，折叠手机市场迎来多玩家竞争的局面。目前国产高端的发力点主要在折叠形态的突破，目前已发布的折叠产品，特别是左右大折叠，无论是整机配置，还是技术难度均属于超旗舰的定位，整机的价格处于各家产品线的顶端。国产厂商在折叠屏领域的积极布局，一方面是希望通过折叠这种新的产品形态把整个市场拉起来，二是希望提升产品成熟度的同时尽早抢占折叠屏市场份额。
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，2022年上半年全球折叠屏手机出货量约600万台，预计2022年全年折叠屏手机出货量将达1400万台，同比增长约13%。同时，预计2023年全球折叠屏手机的出货量将达到近3000万台，呈现翻倍增长趋势。
随着折叠屏技术的逐步成熟，终端厂商在折叠屏产品的布局主要呈现两条路线，一是牺牲一定的外围尺寸以追求极致的硬件堆叠，偏商务性，主要面向对性能有高要求的消费人群。二是追求轻薄的外观而放弃最顶级的硬件配置，保证折叠屏高端定位的同时提升整机的便携性和使用体验，让折叠手机形态加速下探。
回到苹果与华为，不难发现，成功的高端产品，硬件只是基础，而个性化的设计语言，人性化的用户体验与交互生态才是体现品牌高端性的关键。对于国产高端而言，稳定的产品硬件品质是重要的第一步，在做好产品的基础上，从用户角度出发，提升交互设计才能逐步提升品牌形象。国产高端破局，终究是要破除“堆料式”的高端，而回归到品牌认可度与用户体验上。
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