洞察
显示
TV
Monitor
Notebook
Mobile
Tablet
XR
Automotive
Innovation
半导体
Camera
DDIC
Memory
Pure foundry
 

相关链接

In Q4, auto MCUs will increase by about 2%-5%, and the price will hard to decline in 2023

发布时间: 2022/12/08 关注度: 170


Global market: The shortage of chips has eased, and global vehicle shipments are expected to grow by about 2.4% in 2023.

Affected by various factors that are not conducive to economic growth, 2022 is coming to an end. According to Sigmaintell’s statistics, global vehicle shipments in 2022 are expected to be about 80.8 million, a YoY decrease of about 0.2%. However, the growth in 22H2 was obvious, with a YoY growth rate of 10.7%. It can be seen that although the decline in consumption levels caused by the economic downturn has not fully recovered, the reduction in automobile production caused by the lack of chips in the past period is gradually easing. It is expected that in 2023 global vehicle shipments will reach 82.7 million units, an increase of about 2.4% YoY.

Auto MCU: The growth rate narrowed in Q4, and the price will hard to decline in 2023
Entering Q4, with the completion of the transfer of part of the capacity of the foundry to the automotive industry, coupled with factors such as the slowdown in end demand brought about by the global economic downturn, according to Sigmaintell statistics and forecasts, the automotive industry in 22Q4 compared with Q3, the price increase of MCU will be reduced, depending on the degree of material shortage of different models, the increase will be between 2% and 5%. After entering 2023, the lack of automotive MCUs will be greatly alleviated, and the annual supply and demand will return to a relatively benign state with flat prices. NEVs will continue to develop. The sales volume of vehicles in 2023 will have a YoY growth of about 35%. This will continue to drive the demand for automotive MCUs to rise sharply. The price of automotive MCUs is expected to remain difficult to decline in the short term and will fall somewhat by 2024.

Automotive storage: The overall price is still down in Q4, and the price of NOR Flash remains flat
At this stage, automotive storage is not a key chip product that is out of stock in the automotive industry. As the demand for consumer electronics storage chips continues to decline, the supply and demand of most automotive storage are stable. From the perspective of subdivided products:

DRAM: Since the price continued to rise in 21Q1~21Q3, it has been falling since November. Sigmaintell forecasts that the price of automotive DRAM will drop by about 10% in 2022. Nowadays, the relative shortage of automotive chips in the automotive industry is MCU and analog IC products, and it has been partially alleviated from 22Q4. It is expected that the price of automotive DRAM will continue to decline until 23Q2. Storage has reduced investment and slowed down the pace of production expansion. It is expected that prices will level off after 23H2.

NAND: According to Sigmaintell‘s survey and statistics data, automotive NAND will have a larger increase than automotive DRAM in 2021, reaching about 16%, but it has also continued to fall since November. Under the influence of the raw material pollution incident in 22Q1, the ex-factory price once fell back by 5%-10%. However, due to the easing of supply and demand, and memory chip is not the key material affecting the automobile production at the present stage, the price has continued to decline since 22Q3. In 22Q4, the market price of automotive NAND is expected to drop by about 7-10%, and the downward trend will continue until 22Q2 and remain flat after 22H2.

NOR Flash: According to Sigmaintell’s survey data, the price of automotive NOR Flash has been rising from the beginning of 2021 to 22Q3, and the overall ex-factory price has increased by about 10% this year. However, in Q4, the demand for NOR Flash in the consumer sector continued to decline sharply, and the demand for NEVs outside mainland China also began to slow down. The price of NOR Flash remained flat for the first time in 12 months. The market price of automotive NOR Flash will be flat in 22Q4, which may continue until the middle of 2023. Subsequent NOR Flash prices will be flexibly adjusted according to the market demand for NEVs.

Automotive PMIC: Mainland China PMIC has passed the automotive-grade qualification, and leading makers are forced to stop price rising
Since 2021, the end demand for NEVs has increased rapidly, and the product iterations driven by the industry transformation have resulted in a significant increase in the demand for automotive PMICs. In recent years, the continuous Covid-19 pandemic and international trade disputes have led to more interruptions in the global supply chain, slow logistics, and intensified production reductions/stops phenomenon. The capacity of automotive PMICs was once in short supply. Previously, the localized substitution rate of automotive PMICs was low, and the demand for NEVs increased sharply, resulting in relatively robust prices.

According to Sigmaintell’s survey data, from the perspective of market reaction, due to the serious shortage of materials for automotive PMICs from the beginning of 2021 to mid-2022, the actual purchase price even increased to 30% due to a large number of spot purchases downstream. From the perspective of the fab, the overall increase of automotive PMICs will be about 5-10% in 2021. After entering 2022, the price will remain firm and continue to rise, and it will be difficult to reduce the price in the short term. With the recent launch of TI's new plant, the PMIC production capacity has been eased to a certain extent. Recently, the PMIC products of domestic makers such as SgMicro and 3PEAK have passed the automotive-grade qualification, forcing leading makers to stop price increases and consider taking price cuts to maintain market share. From 22Q4, the price of automotive PMICs will begin to maintain a steady state, and it will most likely start to decline after 23Q2, and the annual decline is expected to be about 10%.

Summary: OEM chip demand becomes conservative, and automotive chip prices lose
As the global semiconductor market enters a downward cycle, the chip market for various applications has experienced varying degrees of downward demand. Under this background, wafer foundries have begun to seek to transfer their business to industrial control and automotive chips to maintain a healthy level of utilization. While the consumer electronics market continues to slump, some leading makers have also made more conservative forecasts for the market demand for industrial control and automotive chips after 22Q4. Overall, the decline in semiconductor market demand will continue until at least 23H1. Due to the decline in end demand, downstream makers will begin implementing destocking strategies in 22H2. The capacity utilization rate of mature processes in foundries will further decline in Q4, and foundry prices will continue to decline. However, most automotive products still use mature processes, and prices will inevitably loosen in the next period, and the automotive chip market will therefore enter a period of stability.

中文部分:
四季度车用MCU涨幅约2%-5%,预计2023全年价格难下行

全球市场:缺芯缓解,预计2023年全球汽车销量将增长约2.4%。
在充斥着各种不利于经济增长因素的困扰下,2022年也即将迎来尾声,根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)统计数据,2022年全球汽车销量预计为8080万左右,同比去年下滑约0.2%,但下半年增长明显,同比增速达到10.7%,可见尽管因经济下行造成的消费水平下降虽未能完全恢复,但过去一段时间因缺芯造成的汽车减产情况正逐步缓解,预计2023年全球汽车销量将达到8270万台,同比增长约2.4%。

车用MCU:四季度涨幅收窄,预计2023全年价格难下行
进入到四季度,随着晶圆厂一部分产能向车规完成转移,叠加全球经济下行带来的终端需求放缓等因素,根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)统计及预测,2022年第四季度车用MCU价格涨幅相比三季度将有所减少,根据不同型号缺料程度不同,涨幅介于2%-5%之间。进入到2023年后车用MCU紧缺现象将得到很大缓解,全年供需将恢复到比较良性的状态,价格相对平稳。新能源汽车将持续发力,预计2023全年整车销量同比将有约35%增长空间,这将继续带动车用MCU的需求量大幅上升,预计车用MCU价格短期仍难以下行,到2024年将有所回落。

车用存储 :四季度整体价格仍下行 NOR Flash价格维持稳定
车用存储现阶段并非汽车行业重点缺货的芯片产品,随着消费电子存储芯片需求持续走低的势头,大部分车用存储的供需状况比较平稳,从细分产品来看:

DRAM :自2021年前三季度价格持续上涨后,11月份开始一直回落,群智咨询(Sigmaintell)预测,2022年车用DRAM价格全年下调约10%左右。如今汽车行业相对紧缺的车用芯片是MCU以及模拟类IC产品,并且2022年四季度开始缺货状态已得到部分缓解,预计车用DRAM价格直到2023年二季度为止仍将持续下行,随着上游存储减少投资及放缓扩产步伐,预计2023年下半年后价格大概率维持横盘。

NAND :根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)调查统计,车用NAND相比DRAM在2021年涨幅更大,达到约16%,可自11月开始也处于持续回落状态。在今年一季度发生的原料污染事件影响下原厂价格一度回调5%-10%,但由于供需缓解以及存储非现阶段影响汽车生产的重点物料,自今年三季度以来价格仍持续下行,预计2022年四季度车用NAND市场价格约下降7-10%,下跌趋势将持续到明年二季度,下半年后维持稳定。

NOR Flash :根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)调查,车规NOR Flash价格自2021年初至今年三季度一直处于上涨态势,今年原厂价整体有10%左右的涨幅。然而进入到四季度,NOR Flash在消费领域的需求持续大幅下滑,中国地区以外的新能源汽车需求也开始放缓,NOR Flash价格历经12个月以来首次保持平稳。2022年四季度车用NOR Flash市场价格将趋于稳定,该趋势将可能持续到2023年中期,后续价格将依全球新能源汽车的市场需求灵活调整。

车用PMIC:国产通用过车规认证 头部厂商被迫止涨
自2021年开始的新能源汽车终端需求快速提升,叠加行业转型所带动的产品更迭,使得车用PMIC的用量明显增加。近年来疫情及国际贸易争端等现象频发,导致全球供应链中断增多、物流缓慢、减产/停产现象加剧,车规PMIC产能一度紧缺。此前车规PMIC国产替代率低,新能源汽车需求大增致使其价格较为坚挺。

根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)调查,从市场反应看,由于车规PMIC从2021年初到2022年中严重缺料,下游大量购买现货导致实际采购价格甚至一度上涨到30%。从原厂端看,车规PMIC在2021年整体涨幅约5-10%,进入到2022年后价格仍然坚挺并且持续上涨,短期难以降价。而随着德州仪器(TI)近期新厂投产后,PMIC产能得到一定缓解,叠加近期圣邦(SgMicro)、思瑞浦(3PEAK)等国产商的PMIC产品已通过车规认证,迫使头部厂商停止价格上涨而考虑采取降价措施来维持份额。2022年四季度开始车用PMIC价格将开始维持稳态,2023年二季度后大概率开始下行,全年预计降幅约10%。

总结篇:主机厂芯片需求变保守,车用芯片价格松动
随着全球半导体市场进入下行周期,各应用的芯片市场均出现不同程度的需求下行,此背景下晶圆代工厂商开始寻求将业务转移至工控及车用芯片以维持健康的稼动水平。在消费电子市场持续低迷的同时,部分头部厂商对今年四季度开始后的工控及车用芯片市场需求也做出了更加保守的预测。整体来看,半导体市场需求下行将至少持续到2023年上半年。由于终端需求减退,下游厂商在2022年下半年开始执行去库存策略,四季度开始晶圆厂成熟制程产能利用率进一步下滑,代工价格将继续走低。而车规产品目前仍大部分采用成熟制程工艺,在接下来的一段时间内价格松动趋势在所难免,车用芯片市场也将因此进入一段稳定周期。