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Sensor Optical Format and Pixel Size Continue to Upgrade - Smartphone CIS Market Summary in 2022H1

发布时间: 2022/08/31 关注度: 213

core point

The market enters the inventory digestion cycle in the short term, and the market volume may increase slightly in the next three years
Low-level excess capacity will be transferred to new businesses, and more high-end process capacity will be required to upgrade functions and computing power
The growth rate of multi-cameras is slowing down, and the main camera still has an upgraded trend
Chip prices are affected by supply and demand, and low-end chip prices fall back to the level at the beginning of 2020
The optical format of the sensor and the size of the pixel are continuously upgraded, which promotes the upward development of the industrial chain
The hardware reaches a certain bottleneck period, and the ability of imaging system integration becomes the key to breaking the situation

1. The market enters the inventory digestion cycle in the short term, and the market volume may increase slightly in the next three years

Since the downstream set markers were affected by the shortage of upstream supply in 2020, they began to aggressively increase their stocking plans and excessively release demand plans. However, with the repeated epidemics and international conflicts affecting consumer demand, the rapid recovery has not met expectations, which has directly led to a continuous increase in the inventory level of the entire supply chain. In 2022, the downstream set will focus on digesting inventory and suspending purchases, so that the shipment of mobile phone CIS will continue to decline. According to Sigmaintell’s data, the global mobile phone CIS shipments in 2022 will be approximately 4.71 billion units, a Y-o-Y decrease of approximately 12.2%. The inventory of mobile phone CIS that has been squeezed since the second quarter of last year will take some time to digest. According to the current research and analysis, under optimistic circumstances, the destocking cycle will return to normal levels in 23Q1. When the downstream stocking plan returns to rationality and the upstream production capacity is sufficient, after the global economic environment improves, smartphone CIS will have the opportunity to show slight growth in 2023-2025.

2. Low-level excess capacity will be transferred to new businesses, and more high-end process capacity will be required to upgrade functions and computing power

Overall, the CIS foundry capacity in 2022 will increase by 12.4% Y-o-Y compared to 2021. Among them, the capacity of low-end CIS is affected by the weakening of demand, and production is reduced or transferred to other business areas properly. The capacity of high-end image sensors, especially the expansion trend of 22/28nm, is expected to increase by 16.8% Y-o-Y. With the mass production of TSMC, UMC, and Sony's new factories at the end of 2023, it will be possible to produce CIS with integrated diversified functions and lower power consumption based on the basic advantages of high-end processes, which will consume more wafer capacity while product innovation and upgrading.

3. The growth rate of multi-cameras is slowing down, and the main camera still has an upgraded trend

From 2021, the number of rear-mounted multi-cameras will gradually decrease. According to Sigmaintell's research and analysis on terminal product planning, this trend will continue until 2023. Among them, the quad-camera will drop to about 23% in 2022, down 8 percentage points from last year, and the loading rate of top brands in mainland China is only about 7%.

Nevertheless, the high pixel penetration rate in 2022 will continue to grow. 48M and above pixels will reach about 16.7% market share, a Y-o-Y increase of 3%. At the same time, according to supply chain research, high-end mobile phones of various brands are more willing to upgrade the main camera. The rear main camera with 48/50M and above pixels is expected to increase by about 6 % Y-o-Y in 2021.

4. Chip prices are affected by supply and demand, and low-end chip prices fall back to the level at the beginning of 2020

According to Sigmaintell's July survey. Affected by the continuous decline in demand for smartphones, excess chip capacity and high inventory, etc., the supply and demand relationship of CIS in 2022 will show a change of oversupply. This has led to a price reduction strategy for CIS to gain more market share. In particular, the inventory level of low-end pixel CIS is the highest, reaching about 4-6 months. Therefore, the price of 2M/8M CIS decreased by about 20-30% Y-o-Y, and the price of 13/16M CIS decreased by about 15-25% Y-o-Y, which is equivalent to returning to the price level in early 2020.

The demand for mid-to-high-end smartphones declined the most, resulting in a rapid increase in the inventory of 108M high-pixel CIS after many orders were cut by end customers this year. Even after adjusting the price strategy, the progress of inventory digestion was still lower than expected.

5. The optical format of the sensor and the size of the pixel are continuously upgraded, which promotes the upward development of the industrial chain

There are two routes in the direction of smartphone CIS upgrade:

One is the small-high pixel, such as 108M (0.64xum)/200M (0.5xum), and so on. At present, small-high pixels are still very popular in mid-to-high-end mobile phones in overseas markets, and they are highly recognized by consumers. Therefore, some makers will continue to spare no effort to upgrade ultra-high pixels, such as 300M (0.4xum).

The other one is the large sensor and high pixel, such as 50M (1/1.3")/50M (1/1"), and so on. The main camera standard of high-end flagship products has an upgraded trend, and there is also a trend for multiple main cameras being upgraded to large optical format. In 2022, regardless of the cost factor, the large size of the 1-inch CIS module is also a limiting factor. However, with the optimization and innovation of the module process, it is believed that the thin 1-inch main camera with the super large optical format in 2023 will be applied and upgraded by more high-end products.

6. The hardware reaches a certain bottleneck period, and the ability of imaging system integration becomes the key to breaking the situation

As we all know, the current smartphone imaging hardware has reached a certain bottleneck period, and efforts are being made to find new upgrade directions. Therefore, various end brands try to form strategic cooperation with optical technology companies (such as Zeiss/Leica, etc.) to enhance the diversification and detail of their image effects.

In addition, end brands and chip makers have planned independent plug-in ISPs with self-developed characteristics, designed customized image processors, improved image computing power, developed differentiated image effects, and reduced power consumption.

If the hardware/software/image processing chip of the image is integrated into a complete systematic/intelligent solution, it will have the opportunity to break the current bottleneck period of stockpiling and enable users to generate dependence and trust.

中文:
芯片光学尺寸及像素尺寸不断升级——2022年上半年智能手机图像传感器(CIS)市场总结

核心观点  

短期内进入库存消化周期,未来3年内市场体量有微幅上升空间
低阶产能过剩将转移至新业务,功能和算力升级需更多高阶制程产能
多摄增速放缓,主摄规格仍有升级趋势
芯片价格受供需影响,低阶芯片价格回退至2020年年初水平
芯片光学尺寸及像素尺寸不断升级,推动产业链向上发展
硬件规格达到一定瓶颈期,影像系统整合能力成为破局关键

1.  短期内进入库存消化周期,未来3年内市场体量有微幅上升空间

自2020年下游终端客户受到上游供应紧缺的影响后,开始较为激进地提高备货计划及过度释放需求计划。但随着疫情反复及国际冲突等因素影响消费需求未入预期快速恢复,进而直接导致整个供应链库存水位持续上升。2022年下游终端集中目标消化库存及暂停采购,以至于手机图像传感器出货量持续下滑。根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)数据统计,2022年全球手机图像传感器出货量约为47.1亿颗,同比下滑约12.2%。智能手机图像传感器从去年二季度开始挤压的库存,需要一定时间去消化。根据目前的调研分析,乐观情况下,去库存周期大约在明年一季度将会回归正常水平。在下游备货计划回归理性及上游产能充足的情况下,全球经济环境趋好后,2023-2025年智能手机图像传感器将有机会呈现微幅增长。

2.  低阶产能过剩将转移至新业务,功能和算力升级需更多高阶制程产能

总体来看,2022年同比2021年图像传感器晶圆代工产能同比增长了12.4%。其中,低阶图像传感器产能受到需求减弱的影响,适时地减产或者转移至其他业务领域。高阶图像传感器产能,尤其是22/28nm的扩产趋势明显,预期同比去年增长16.8%。随着台积电、联电、索尼新工厂在2023年年底量产后,届时将有可能在高阶制程基础优势上生产集成多样化的功能及更低功耗的图像传感器,在产品创新升级的同时需消耗更多的晶圆产能。

3.  多摄增速放缓,主摄规格仍有升级趋势

从2021年开始后置多摄颗数逐步减少,根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)对终端产品规划调研及分析,此趋势将会延续到2023年。其中,2022年四摄下降至23%左右,同比去年下滑了8个百分点,并且中国大陆头部品牌的搭载率仅有7%左右。

尽管如此, 2022年高像素渗透率依然保持增长趋势,48M及以上像素将会达到约16.7%市场份额,同比增长了3个百分点。与此同时,根据供应链调研各品牌终端的高端手机对于主摄升级的意愿较为积极。后主摄像48/50M及以上像素,同比2021年预计将会增长约6个百分点。

4.  芯片价格受供需影响,低阶芯片价格回退至2020年年初水平

根据群智咨询(Sigmaintell)7月调研统计,2022年,受智能手机需求持续下滑,芯片产能过剩叠加高库存等影响,图像传感器的供需关系呈现供过于求的变化,导致图像传感器开启降价策略以博取更多市场份额,尤其是低端像素图像传感器库存水位最高,达到4-6个月左右。因此,2M/8M图像传感器价格同比去年下滑约20-30%,13/16M图像传感器价格同比下滑约15-25%, 相当于回到2020年年初价格水平。

中高端智能手机整机需求下滑幅度最大,导致108M高像素图像传感器在今年被终端客户多次砍单后库存也迅速攀升,以至于尽管调整价格策略后,库存消化进度依然低于预期。

5.  芯片光学尺寸及像素尺寸不断升级,推动产业链向上发展

智能手机图像传感器升级方向有两条路线:

一条是主推高像素小pixel,如108M(0.64xum)/200M(0.5xum)等。目前高像素小pixel在海外市场的中高端手机中依然很受欢迎,消费者认可度较高。因此,部分厂商将会持续不遗余力升级超高像素,如300M(0.4xum)等。

另一条是主推大底高像素,例如50M(1/1.3")/50M(1/1")等。高端旗舰产品主摄标配有升级趋势,并且有多主摄升级成大底的趋势。2022年抛开成本因素,1英寸图像传感器模组尺寸过大也是限制性因素;但随着模组工艺优化创新,相信2023年将会有更多的高端产品有机会升级成薄化的1英寸超大底主摄。

6.  硬件规格达到一定瓶颈期,影像系统整合能力成为破局关键

众所周知,目前智能手机影像硬件规格已达到一定瓶颈周期,正在努力寻找新的升级方向。因此,各终端厂商尝试与光学技术公司(例如:蔡司/莱卡等)形成战略合作,借此提升其影像效果的多样化和细节效果。

除此之外,终端厂商和芯片商都有规划自研特色的独立外挂ISP,设计定制化的影像处理器,提升影像算力,开发差异化影像效果及降低功耗。

如果把影像的硬件/软件/图像处理芯片等整合成一套完整的系统化/智能化方案,将有机会打破当前的堆料瓶颈期,让用户能够形成依赖或是信任。