洞察发布时间: 2022/02/08 关注度: 202
According to the survey data of Sigmaintell, the global smartphone panel shipments in 2021will be about 1.94 billion pieces (Open Cell), an increase of about 2.6% YoY. The YoY growth rate of shipments for the year showed a trend of "high before and low", about 950 million units were shipped in the first half of the year, an increase of about 17.0% YoY, and about 990 million units were shipped in the second half of the year, a decrease of about 8.3% YoY.
From the perspective of product structure, due to the impact of the epidemic, the upgrade of the smartphone set market slowed down in 2021. To seize market share and reduce costs, set makers have increased the layout of a-Si products, slowing down the decline of the a-Si market. According to the survey data of Sigmaintell, the global shipment of a-Si smartphone panels in 2021 was 800 million pieces (Open Cell), a decrease of about 1.8% YoY. At the same time, in 2021, global LTPS (LCD) smartphone panel shipments were 500 million pieces (Open Cell), a decline of about 15.1% YoY, more due to the continuous extrusion of rigid OLED panels.
From a quarterly perspective, shipments in the fourth quarter were about 510 million pieces (Open Cell), a decrease of about 9.9% YoY. The main reason for this is that the retail sales of smartphones are still weak, and consumers have insufficient power to charge phones, which makes the inventory of components and complete machines, including display screens, at a relatively high level. Mobile phone brands have conservative stocking strategies. In the fourth quarter, major set makers took inventory adjustment as their priority strategy.
Benefiting from the strong demand for OLED panels from set makers such as Apple, BOE/Samsung shipments have grown significantly.
According to survey data from Sigmaintell, the global smartphone panel shipments in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be approximately 510 million units, a decrease of approximately 9.9% YoY. BOE, SDC, and Tianma are the top three listed companies. The TOP3 market share is about 58.0%, an increase of about 6.3% YoY, and the industry concentration continues to rise.
Throughout the year, BOE ranked first in the industry with 490 million units shipped, of which LCD panel shipments were about 430 million units. Benefiting from the recognition of brand customers and a stable supply chain supporting capabilities, its LCD smartphone panel shipments showed a steady growth trend, an increase of approximately 14.6% YoY. In terms of OLED smartphone panels, shipments also showed a high growth trend due to the new iPhone orders from Apple. According to Sigmaintell's survey data, BOE's OLED smartphone panel shipments were about 60 million units in 2021, an increase of about 63.7% YoY. With the release of more capacity and the deepening of cooperation with brands, BOE's future market share will further increase.
SDC ranked second with 450 million units of shipments. Benefiting from Apple's orders, its FOLED panel shipments were about 200 million units, an increase of about 25.7% YoY. In terms of ROLED panels, although SDC's mobile phone demand has reduced, orders from local customers in mainland China are slightly stronger, making its annual shipment of rigid mobile phone panels about 250 million units, an increase of about 19.4% YoY. While ensuring its shipment share and technology leadership, SDC is also actively expanding the application of OLED panels in notebook computers, tablet computers, and smart cars.
Tianma ranked third with 180 million units shipped, of which LTPS (LCD) panels shipped about 130 million units, still leading the global LTPS (LCD) smartphone panel. With the continuous penetration of OLED panels in the smartphone market, the overall demand for LCD panels continues to decline. On the one hand, Tianma continues to maintain its advantages in the LCD field, while striving to expand its competitiveness in OLED. According to statistics from Sigmaintell, its flexible OLED panel shipments were nearly 10 million in 2021, doubling year on year.
The mainland shipped about 140 million OLED panels, an increase that exceeded the global rate, showing the characteristics of "small steps and fast running".
According to Sigmaintell's survey data, in 2021, global OLED smartphone panel shipments were 640 million units, an increase of 31.1% YoY; of which flexible OLED shipments were 350 million, an increase of 43.6% YoY. From a regional perspective, with the gradual release of the capacity of domestic OLED panel factories, the market share of domestic OLED panel factories has also gradually increased, showing the characteristics of "small steps and fast running". According to Sigmaintell data, in 2021, the OLED panel shipments of Chinese mainland manufacturers were about 140 million units, an increase of about 60.1% YoY, and the growth rate is twice the global average growth rate. Among them, BOE ranked second in the world and first in China with a shipment of 60 million pieces. Visionox's OLED smartphone panel shipments in 2021 were approximately 30.45 million units, an increase of approximately 48.1% YoY, ranking fourth in the world and second in China. Especially in 21Q4, Visionox shipped nearly 10 million for the first time. Visionox's OLED smartphone panel shows a rapid growth trend, mainly benefiting from orders from customers such as Honor. In addition, it continued to make efforts in technological innovations such as new pixels, high requency rates, and under-screen camera products. In particular, its new pixel design has been applied to a variety of foldable phones and smartphones, including Honor, Huawei, ZTE, etc. In the future, Visionox is expected to win more markets with the rapid release of its LTPO capacity and the performance of its folding products, and accelerate the shipment of high-end products.
With the increasing recognition of domestic OLED panel technical capabilities by set brands, it is expected that domestic OLED panel makers will receive more orders from brand customers in the future.
Outlook: Accelerate the mass production of innovative products, optimize supply chain management, and improve operational efficiency.
Affected by the epidemic and the rapid changes in the end market in the past year. Although the global smartphone market shipments in 2021 increased YoY, after entering the second half of the year, the overall smartphone terminal market is still sluggish, and end-users are weak in changing phones. Looking forward to 2022 The panel supply chain will face more challenges, mainly in the following two points:
1. Demand has entered the stock period, and the mass production of innovative products with special forms such as foldable will be accelerated.
The smartphone market has entered a mature stage. Against the background of the stock market, the competition of brands has intensified. End customers' demands for new display technologies continue to grow, especially innovations in appearance and form. Therefore, it is recommended that panel makers continue to develop and mass-produce products with special forms such as foldable, and continue to explore technological no-man's-land.
2. Further optimize the efficiency of supply chain management and continuously improve the competitiveness in terms of delivery and cost.
The display and semiconductor industry has the characteristics of "global cooperation" in the supply chain. In the post-epidemic era, black swan events occur frequently. From the delivery of devices in the upstream supply chain to the negotiation of cost prices, the supply chain management capabilities of various manufacturers are tested. Therefore, it is suggested that panel makers can further optimize their supply chain management capabilities, improve the "early warning mechanism", and continuously improve their competitiveness in terms of delivery capabilities and delivery costs.
中文：
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调查数据显示，2021年全球智能手机面板出货约19.4亿片（Open Cell统计口径），同比增长约2.6%。全年出货同比增速呈现“前高后低”趋势，即上半年出货约9.5亿片，同比增长约17.0%，下半年出货约9.9亿片，同比下降约8.3%。
从产品结构来看，受到疫情影响，2021年智能手机终端市场升级放缓，终端厂商为抢占市场份额及降低成本，加大了对a-Si产品的布局，减缓了a-Si市场的衰退速度。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调查数据显示，2021年全球a-Si智能手机面板出货为8.0亿片（Open Cell口径），同比下滑约1.8%。与此同时，2021年全球LTPS（LCD）智能手机面板出货5.0亿片（Open Cell口径），同比下滑约15.1%，更多来自于刚性OLED面板的不断挤压。
从季度别来看，四季度出货量约为5.1亿片（Open Cell统计口径），同比下降约9.9%。究其主要原因为智能手机终端零售依旧疲软，消费者换机动力不足，使得包括显示屏等零组件及整机库存处于相对较高水位，手机品牌厂商备货策略偏保守，四季度主要终端厂商以调整行业库存为优先策略。
受益于苹果等终端厂商对OLED面板的强需求，京东方/三星出货量增长显著
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调查数据显示，2021年第四季度全球智能手机面板出货量约为5.1亿部，同比下降约9.9%。京东方（BOE）、三星（SDC）、天马（Tianma）位列出货前三位，TOP3市占集中度约为58.0%，同比上升约6.3个百分点，行业集中度持续走高。
纵观全年，京东方（BOE）以4.9亿片出货量位列行业首位，其中LCD面板出货量约为4.3亿片，得益于品牌客户的认可及稳定的供应链配套能力，其LCD智能手机面板出货量呈现稳定增长趋势，同比增长约14.6%。在OLED智能手机面板方面，由于取得苹果iPhone新机订单，其出货量也呈现高幅增长趋势，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调查数据，2021年其OLED智能手机面板出货量约6000万部，同比增长约63.7%。随着更多的产能释放，以及扩大与终端品牌间的深度合作，未来市场出货份额将进一步提升。
三星显示（SDC）以4.5亿片的出货量位列第二，得益于苹果订单的拉动，其柔性（FOLED）面板出货量约为 2.0亿片，同比增长约25.7%。刚性（ROLED）面板方面, 尽管三星手机降低了需求，但是来自中国大陆本土客户订单略显强劲，使得三星显示的刚性手机面板全年出货量约2.5亿片，同比增长约19.4%。三星显示在确保其出货份额和技术的领先性的同时，还在积极拓展OLED面板在笔记本电脑、平板电脑及智能汽车等领域的应用。
天马（Tianma）以1.8亿片的出货位居第三，其中LTPS（LCD）面板出货量约为1.3亿片，依然引领全球LTPS（LCD）智能手机面板。随着OLED面板在智能手机市场的不断渗透，LCD面板需求整体呈现持续走低趋势，天马一方面仍然继续维持在LCD领域的优势，同时奋力扩大其在OLED方面竞争力，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据，2021年其柔性OLED面板出货量近1000万，同比翻倍增长。
大陆OLED面板出货约1.4亿片，增幅超全球，呈现 “小步快跑” 特点
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调查数据显示，2021年全球OLED智能手机面板出货6.4亿片，同比上升31.1%；其中柔性OLED出货3.5亿，同比上升43.6%。分区域来看，随着国内OLED面板厂产能的逐步释放，国内OLED面板厂的市场份额也逐步提升，总体呈现“小步快跑” 特点。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，2021年中国大陆厂商的OLED面板出货量约1.4亿片，同比增长约60.1%，增长幅度两倍于全球平均增幅。其中，京东方以6000万片的出货量位居全球第二，国内第一。 维信诺（Visionox）2021年其OLED智能手机面板出货量约为3045万片，同比增长约48.1%，位列全球第四，国内第二，尤其是在2021第四季度首次出货近1000万。维信诺OLED智能手机面板呈现高速增长趋势，主要受益于荣耀等品牌客户订单。此外，其在新像素、高刷新率和屏下摄像头产品等技术创新领域持续发力。尤其，其鼎排新像素设计应用于多款折叠机、智能机，包含荣耀、华为、中兴等。未来，维信诺有望凭借其LTPO产能的快速释放、折叠产品表现赢得更多市场，加速向高端产品的出货。
随着品牌厂商对国内OLED面板技术能力的认可度不断走高，预计未来国内OLED面板厂将获得更多的品牌客户订单。
展望篇：加快创新产品量产进度、优化供应链管理、提升运营效率
近一年受到疫情及终端市场快速变化影响，尽管2021全年全球智能手机市场出货同比增长，但是进入下半年后，整体智能手机终端市场仍然表现低迷，终端用户换机乏力，展望2022年显示面板供应链将面临更多考验，主要有以下两点：
1. 需求进入存量期，加快折叠等异形态创新产品的量产进度
智能手机终端市场已经进入成熟期，在存量市场背景下，品牌厂商的竞争加剧。终端客户对于显示新技术的诉求不断走强，尤其外观形态方面的创新，因此建议面板厂商持续发力折叠等异形态产品开发及量产进度，不断探索技术无人区。
2. 进一步优化供应链管理效率，不断提升交付及成本方面的竞争力
显示及半导体产业具备供应链“全球合作”的特点，后疫情时代，黑天鹅事件频发，从上游供应链的器件交付到成本价格的谈判等等，无时无刻都在考验着各厂商的供应链管理能力。因此，建议各面板厂商能够进一步优化供应链管理能力，完善“预警机制”，在交付能力及交付成本方面不断提升竞争力。
