洞察发布时间: 2021/12/24 关注度: 223
The 2021 comes to an end. Looking back on the past year, global LCD TV panel market was experiencing an intensified turbulence: the first half of this year witnessed a continuously positive performance on TV market in North America and other major regions, driving the panel demand remain strong; however, since the third quarter, with the retail performance in overseas market showed slowdown, TV panel demand has undergoing a rapid decrease, leading to a constant drop in LCD TV panel shipments throughout the year. How to rebuild market confidence in 2022? How to find the market potential and growth points? Both are worthy of our thinking and exploration.
Shipment scale: a decline trend in panel shipment will continue in 2022
2021 is a year that the panel market is on the abnormal track. In the first half of the year, under the influence of COVID-19, the panel shipments volume increased significantly on YoY with strong stocking demand from brands. However, in the second half of the year, affected by the gradual unblocking of social isolation, demand overdrafts and logistics issues and other factors, together with the restraint effect of increasing panel prices on the set demand, panel demand took a sharp turn, affecting shipment volume has a YoY decline. According to Sigmaintell’s data, the global LCD TV panels’ shipment volume in 2021 will reach 260 million, a decrease of 2.3% on YoY ; and the shipment area will be 170 million square meters, an increase of 3.7% on YoY.
In 2022, there will be a slight decline in the overall demand, but structural opportunities will still be possible. Due to factors including the COVID-19, heavier inflation pressure, demands overdrawing, etc., the industry generally holds a cautious attitude towards the future panel market.
1. With a weak growth of demand from end market, there are some structural opportunities. The demand momentum in the Chinese market is insufficient. in emerging countries such as India, despite the large demand potential brought by the demographic factor, the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy limits the substantial growth of demand; in North America and Europe, demand overdraft seriously, the demand for the low-end products is weak, while the demand for middle and high panels is growing steadily and it is worth looking forward to.
2. Port congestion and cost problems make the inventory risk of channels more higher. The logistic issue has not been effectively eased, and the longer time and increasing cost on transportation will continue to affect the market. In particular, pay more attention to the increase of liquid inventory due to the extended logistics L/T in the North American market, which may bring more uncertainty to the brand stocking strategy in the first half of next year.
3. Dropping of panel prices will gradually show the stimulus effect on brand stocking strategies and demands. As panel prices decrease, more space for brand promotion will be available to stimulate the release of end market demands. At the same time, the risk of decrease in prices will also ignite the enthusiasm of part second-tier market for panel demand. However, price and demand are never a simple linear relationship. How much demand can be activated? A careful survey is still necessary.
Above all, according to Sigmaintell’s data, in 2022, global LCD TV shipment volume is expected to reach 250 million units with a YoY decrease of 3.1%; and the shipment area is predicted to be close to 180 million square meters with a YoY increase of 4.4%.
Vision of the panel makers: stay showy in 2021 and keep low profile in 2022
In 2021, it can be foreseen that all panel makers will gain considerable total revenue with a YoY increase in the overall capacity. But from the last half of 2021, panel prices have met a break point For the approaching 2022, the panel makers will face heavy operation pressure. Therefore, to hide the capacities and bide the time to break forth seems more suitable for the development trend for the next year.
BOE, in 2021, ranks the first place both in shipment volume and shipment area, and its overall shipment volume is expected to exceed 60 million pieces. In 2022, G8.5 will continue to reduce the TV panel capacity; G10.5 will ramp up steadily and become the backbone of TV panel production; and G8.6 will keep upgrading of size structure as a source for super-large sizes. As a result, BOE will provide more size options in 2022 with equal strengths in all sizes, and large sizes will display a prominent competitive advantage.
TCL CSOT, the shipment volume in 2021 keeps stable at more than 40 million pieces, and shipment area will more than 30 million square meters. In 2022, CSOT will strive for stable TV business and actively expand its IT business in order to seek comprehensive development in various applications. In addition, regarding the product line in the LCD TV field, CSOT is more focused on large-sized products such as 55",65" and 75".
HKC has the largest increase in capacity. In 2021, the shipment scale is close to 40 million pieces, an increase of 31% YoY, surpassing Taiwanese panel makers to enter the top three list. In 2022, HKC will take the initiative to seek breakthroughs and enable itself more powerful in the supply of 55"+ large-sized panels by MMG program, especially to achieve leapfrog growth in the supply of 80"+ products. its size structure will be more complete, thus further enhancing customer stickiness.
For Chinese Taiwan panel makers, they are searching for potential growth tracks through differentiated layout. In terms of product layout, Taiwan panel makers want to avoid the products competition with mainland panel makers on G10.5 lines, and will pay more attention to their product advantages. Among them, AUO focus on high-end products, and has formulated plans for super-large-sized, 8K and high frequency rate panels. Innolux insists on differentiated competition, and its product layout is relatively scattered.
As for Korean panel makers, they focus on the OLED business while continuing to shrink their LCD business. Samsung Display (SDC) is expected to completely close its LCD production lines in the middle of 2022 and concentrate its energy and resources on QD-OLED. LGD will strengthen cooperation both in OLED and LCD with Samsung, so they insist a dual-track strategy. At the same time, due to limited capacity, LGD has developed closer cooperation with global brands, while the cooperation with Chinese brands will be significantly weakened.
Supply&demand and price: the supply and demand will turn to be balance in the first half of 2022, and panel prices are expected to stop decreasing and become stable in the second quarter
In 2021, supply and demand in the global LCD TV panel market showed a drastic fluctuation. In the first half of the year, panel demandremained strong. Due to the shortage of semiconductor materials on the supply side, panel’s effective supply was limited, causing a constant rise in panel prices. Thus，LCD TV panel prices experienced a rising period with the largest and the longest increasing cycle; In the second half of the year, as a result of factors including rapidly falling panel demand, the shortage of semiconductor material eased gradually and the capacity released from the new lines, the supply and demand environment quickly reversed to a loose situation, thus making the panel price to decrease.
In the first half of 2022, it is expected that the supply and demand will turn to balance, , and panel prices will stop decreasing and stay stable in the second quarter.
From the demand side, the overall demand for global LCD TV panels in 2022 will be not optimistic. The first quarter is a traditional weak season for panel stocking, there will be a comparatively weak driving force for brands to stock panels. In the second quarter, the panel demand will step towards recovery. In the second half of the year, driven by sports events such as the World Cup, the panel demand is expected to improve significantly.
From the supply side, the active expansion of existing lines’ capacity by some panel makers will drive the effective supply of global LCD TV panel capacity to increase on YoY obviously in 2022. According to the Sigmaintell’s forecast, the global LCD TV panel capacity area will increase by 8.1% YoY in 2022.
In terms of the overall supply and demand, according to Sigmaintell's “supply-demand model” calculation, the supply-demand ratio in 22Q1 will be 6.4%, maintain a loose supply. Supply and demand will gradually tend to become balanced in 22Q2. Affected by this supply-demand anticipation, LCD TV panel prices in 22Q1 are predicted to maintain a downward trend and the decline will be significantly narrowed. In 22Q2, prices are expected to stop falling and become stable.
Segmented tracks: OLED productswill usher in accelerating growth, and there is great increasing potential of high refresh panels.refresh
In spite of the overall demand in global TV panels market is not optimistic, some segmented applications are still worth looking forward to. Generally speaking, technological innovation on TV panels is at a slow pace, but OLED, high refresh rate and super-large size are relatively impressive.
OLED: a diversified supply pattern, Samsung will join in, and it will approach rapid growth.
Featured with excellent picture quality, OLED TVs are favored by high-quality consumers, which promotes the active planning for head brands. With LGE and Sony as the leading brands, and with the head brand Samsung joins in, the driving force from demand side of OLED panel shipments will be significantly increased, At the same time, the support from suppliers will also increase, including LGD continues to expand capacity while enriching OLED products. For Samsung Display, the formal mass production of QD Display marks that OLED TV panel supply is shifting from singly supply to diversified supply pattern, which provides a stronger guarantee for the supply of OLED TV panels. According to the forecast by Sigmaintell, OLED panel shipment volume will exceed 11 million units in 2022, and the penetration rate will reach 4.3%.
High refresh rate(120Hz): Cater to consumers’ entertainment needs with great growth potential.
In recent years, with the rapid popularity of the gaming industry, gaming TVs have gradually been brought in front of public eyes, making it be one choices for game enthusiasts. As a result, top brands are actively launching corresponding TVs with high refresh rate, thus driving the continuous growth of high refresh panel shipment volume. Leading by global brands like Samsung, Sony, and LG Electronics, Chinese brands including Hisense are also positively formulating their plans, pushing the high refresh TV panel to upgrade from 60Hz to 120Hz or higher. At the same time, influenced by high-end products including OLED and Mini LED, the panel demand with high refresh rate is showing a steady growth trend. According to Sigmaintell, the 120Hz TV panel shipment volume will reach 21 million in 2021, an increase of 61% on YoY; and it is expected to increase to 27 million in 2022, a YoY growth of 30% and a penetration rate of nearly 10%.
Super large size: more supply and gradually stronger market demand.
The continuous increase in the demand for large sizes in the main TV consumption regions including China and North American markets, has enabled leading brands to maintain a relatively high growth of demand for large or even super-large sizes. According to the survey by Sigmaintell, the LCD TV panel average size in 2022 will be 50.4 inches, an increase of 1.9 inches, the highest increase in a single year since 2016. At the same time, Chinese panel makers will continue to strengthen their supply capacity of 80"+ super-large-sized panels. In particular, the mass production of G8.6 MMG products from HKC is expected to lower the costs and provide guarantee for the supply of 80"+ panels. For brands, especially the global brands, will be more active in planning. It is predicted that the demand for super-large-sized 80"+ panels in global market will be gradually activated in the future, and there is hope for high growth. According to the forecast by Sigmaintell, the global 80"+ TV panel shipment volume in 2021 will reach nearly 3.4 million pieces with a penetration rate of 1.3%, an increase of 57% on YoY. It is estimated that the global 80"+ TV panel shipment scale will be close to 5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate will go to 1.9%, an increase of 42% YoY.
Conclusion
2021 is coming to an end in the ups and downs. During the year, people experienced happiness and worry. Looking back, we can clearly find out that the pace of changes in the market is obviously accelerating, there still exist many potential unstable factors, and unexpected events continue to occur. Therefore, in 2022, what kind of market situation will TV panels face? How can panel makers seek self-breakthrough and achieve self-growth in the changes? Here are some recommendations from Sigmaintell:
1. Flexible adjustment and cautious expansion. In 2022, it is expected that the demand for IT panels will not continue to grow, which requires panel makers to adjust their capacity more flexibly and quickly in response to market changes. Meanwhile, under the expectation of sluggish demand, they should be cautious about capacity expansion so as to reduce the possibility of more supply risks.
2. Don't put all the eggs in one basket. Although it is an indisputable fact that the concentration of global LCD TV panel market has increased and the effect of customer clustering has gradually appeared. it is worthwhile to consolidate the strategic partnership with core customers while appropriately breaking down the existing cooperation barriers and enriching customer cooperation groups in the volatile market environment, which is a self-protection strategy to diversify risks.
3. Improve product competitiveness. No matter how the market situation changes, product competitiveness is always regarded as a core element. It is of great significance to focus on the scale when the demand is strong, while in the face of unsatisfactory demands, it is required to pay closer attention to products. Panel makers need to explore consumer needs and develop products that meet expectations, which includes not only achieving technical upgrades, but also enriching product experience. Perhaps the above strategies can not get a quick result on the sales volume, but we believe that competitive products will eventually be recognized by customers and become the guarantee of order volume.
中文：
2021年已进入尾声，回顾即将过去的一年，全球LCD TV面板市场动荡加剧：上半年，北美等主要电视消费市场表现持续向好，推动面板需求维持强劲；然而三季度开始，随着海外市场零售表现放缓，TV面板需求迅速降温，影响全年LCD TV面板出货延续下降态势。2022年，市场信心如何重建？如何挖掘市场潜力及增长点？均值得我们思考和探寻。
出货规模：2022年面板出货数量延续下降趋势
2021，淡季不淡，旺季不旺。上半年在疫情红利延续的推动下，品牌面板备货需求强劲，面板出货规模同比增幅明显。而下半年，受到社交隔离逐步解封、需求透支、物流时间和成本高企等因素的影响，叠加面板价格上涨对终端需求的抑制效应，面板市场需求迎来急转弯，影响全年出货规模同比下降。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据显示，2021年全球LCD TV面板出货数量预计为2.6亿片，同比下降2.3%；出货面积1.7亿平方米，同比增加3.7%。
2022，大盘需求微降，但存结构性机会。在疫情红利逐步退却，通胀压力增加以及需求透支等因素影响下，业界普遍对面板市场的预期保持谨慎的态度。
① 终端需求增长乏力，存结构性机会。中国市场需求动能不足；新兴国家如印度等市场，尽管人口红利带来的需求潜力较大，但疫情对经济的影响限制了需求的大幅增长；北美及欧洲市场需求透支严重，低端需求低迷，但中高端需求稳中增长，值得期待。
② 物流塞港及成本问题持续，渠道库存走高风险增加。物流塞港问题尚未得到有效缓解，时效拉长以及成本增加将会持续影响市场。尤其要关注由于北美市场物流L/T拉长带来流动库存增加，恐对明年上半年品牌备货策略带来更多不确定性。
③ 面板价格回落对品牌备货策略及需求刺激作用将逐渐显现。随着面板价格下探，品牌促销空间增加，刺激终端需求将逐步释放。与此同时，跌价风险下降亦会点燃二线市场对于面板需求的部分热情。只是，价格与需求之间从来不是简单的线性关系。究竟能激活多大的需求体量？依然需要谨慎观察。
结合以上分析，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预测数据显示，2022年全球LCD TV面板预计出货2.5亿片，同比下降3.1%；预测出货面积接近1.8亿平方米，同比增加4.4%。
厂商格局：2021锋芒毕露，2022韬光养晦
2021年，可以预见各面板厂全年营收总业绩相当可观，整体产能同比增长，尽显锋芒。但是从2021年下半年，面板价格迎来拐点，即将到来的2022年，各面板厂将面临较大的经营压力。因此，养精蓄锐，厚积薄发，更符合明年厂商的发展旋律。
京东方（BOE），2021年不论出货数量还是出货面积都稳居第一，整体出货数量有望突破6000万片。2022年，G8.5将继续缩减TV面板产能分配，G10.5稳定爬坡并成为TV面板生产的中坚力量，G8.6持续升级作为超大尺寸的孵化来源。由此，2022年BOE尺寸结构更加丰富，各尺寸实力均等，大尺寸竞争优势突出。
TCL华星（CSOT），2021年出货量稳定在4000万片以上，出货面积超过3000万平方米。2022年，TV业务力求稳健，积极拓展IT业务，以寻求各应用全面发展。此外，TCL华星在LCD TV领域的产品线相对聚焦 55"&65"&75"等大尺寸产品。
惠科（HKC），产能增幅最大，2021年出货规模接近4,000万片，同比增长31%，超过台厂挤进第三。2022年，惠科亦在积极寻求突破，通过套切方案积极增强55"+大尺寸面板供应，尤其是80"+的供应能力实现跨越增长，产品尺寸更加完整，客户黏性有望进一步增强。
中国台湾厂商方面，差异化布局，寻求潜在增长赛道。台厂在产品布局方面纷纷避开与中国大陆面板厂G10.5产品的直面竞争，更加注重在各自领域发挥产品优势。其中友达（AUO）聚焦高端产品，对于超大尺寸和8K、高刷面板都有积极规划。群创（Innolux）坚定差异化竞争，产品布局相对分散。
韩国厂商方面，LCD 持续收敛，深耕OLED。三星显示（SDC）预计2022年年中将全面关闭LCD产线，集中精力和资源深耕QD-OLED。LG显示（LGD）与三星显示在OLED和LCD方面加强合作，双轨道并行。与此同时，因产能相对有限，LG显示加强了与国际品牌的合作，而与中国品牌的合作份额将受到明显挤压。
供需及价格：2022年上半年供需趋于平衡，面板价格有望在二季度止跌回稳
2021年全球LCD TV面板市场供需剧烈波动，上半年，面板需求保持强劲，供应端因半导体材料短缺，面板有效供应受限，面板价格持续上涨，LCD TV面板价格经历了涨幅最大时间最长的上涨周期；下半年，面板需求迅速回落，半导体缺料状况逐渐缓解，加之新线爬坡带来的产能陆续释放，因此供需环境迅速反转走向宽松，面板价格进入下行通道。
2022年上半年，预计供需逐步趋于平衡，面板价格有望在二季度止跌回稳。
从需求端来看，2022年全球LCD TV面板整体需求不容乐观。一季度作为传统备货淡季，品牌备货驱动力较弱；二季度，面板备货需求逐步恢复；下半年在世界杯等体育赛事的拉动下预计需求将有明显好转。
从供应端来看，部分面板厂对既有产线产能的积极扩充将带动2022年全球LCD TV面板有效供应产能同比增幅明显。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预测数据显示，2022年全球LCD TV面板产能面积同比增幅达到8.1%。
综合供应和需求来看，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）供需模型测算，2022年一季度供需比为6.4%，维持宽松，预计到二季度供需将逐步趋于平衡。受此供需预期影响，预计LCD TV面板价格一季度依然维持下跌趋势，跌幅显著收窄，二季度价格有望止跌回稳。
细分赛道：OLED迎加速增长，高刷面板增长潜能大
尽管全球TV面板市场整体需求不容乐观，但部分细分赛道应用仍然值得期待。整体来讲，TV面板技术革新步伐推进缓慢，但其中OLED、高刷、超大尺寸表现相对亮眼。
OLED：供应多元化，三星入局，迎加速增长
OLED电视具备优异的画质表现，受到高品质消费者的青睐，推动头部品牌积极布局。以LG电子（LGE）和索尼（Sony）为领先代表，同时随着领导品牌三星电子（Samsung）的加入，OLED面板出货来自于需求端的拉力将明显增强。与此同时，供应端的支撑力也紧紧跟随，包括LG显示在丰富OLED产品的同时持续扩大产能供应；三星显示 QD Display正式量产标志着OLED TV面板供应由单一供应向多元供应格局转变，对OLED TV面板供应提供了更强保障。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预测数据显示，2022年OLED面板出货将突破1,100万片，渗透率将达到4.3%。
高刷(120Hz)：迎合消费者娱乐需求，增长潜能大
近几年随着电竞行业迅速火热，也带动游戏电视逐渐走入大众视野，成为游戏爱好者的选择之一。因此，头部品牌积极推出对应的高刷电视，从而带动高刷面板出货持续增长。以国际品牌三星电子、索尼、LG电子为主导，同时中国品牌包括海信等亦积极布局，驱动着TV面板刷新率由60Hz向120Hz以及更高刷新率升级迭代。同时，在包括OLED、MiniLED等高端产品的带动下，高刷面板需求呈现稳定成长趋势。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预测数据显示，2021年120Hz高刷TV面板出货数量将达2,100万片，同比增长61%；预计2022年120Hz高刷面板出货规模将增加至2,700万片规模，同比增加30%，渗透率接近10%。
超大尺寸：供应增加，市场需求被逐步打开
全球电视主要消费区域包括中国和北美市场，对于大尺寸的需求持续增加，带动头部品牌对大尺寸甚至超大尺寸需求维持较高增长。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调研数据显示，2022年LCD TV面板平均尺寸为50.4英寸，增幅1.9英寸，为2016年来单年最大增幅。同时，中国面板厂商对于80"+超大尺寸面板供应能力持续增强，尤其是HKC G8.6套切产品的量产，有望带来成本下降的同时，对80"+面板供应形成一定的保障。品牌端尤其以国际品牌布局更为积极，预计未来全球超大尺寸 80"+面板市场需求将被逐步激活，有望迎高增长。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预测数据显示，2021年全球80"+TV 面板出货规模将接近340万片，渗透率1.3%，同比增幅57%；预计2022年全球80"+ TV 面板出货规模将接近500万片，渗透率将达到1.9%，同比增幅42%。
写在最后
2021年在高潮和下跌的更迭中走到了尾声，有人欢喜有人忧，几多困扰几多愁。回过头来，我们可以明显的感知到，市场的变化节奏在明显的加快，潜在的不稳定因素依然很多，超预期事件也不断发生。因此，对于2022年，TV面板环境将会面对怎样的市场风云，面板厂商如何在风云变化中寻求自我突破，实现自我成长，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）的建议如下：
1、灵活调整，谨慎扩张。2022年，IT应用面板需求恐难以持续增长，需要面板厂更加灵活快速的跟随市场反应调整产能。同时，面对大环境需求不振的预期，谨慎对待产能扩张，降低供应风险升级可能性。
2、鸡蛋不要放在一个篮子里。面板集中度提升，客户集群效应逐渐显现，但在加剧震荡市场环境中，应巩固核心客户战略合作关系的同时，适当打破固有的合作壁垒，丰富客户合作群体，不失为一种分散风险的自我保护策略。
3、提高产品竞争力。不管市场格局怎么变，产品竞争力仍是核心要素。需求强劲抓规模，需求低迷抓产品。挖掘消费者需求，开发符合预期的产品，不仅单纯技术上的升级，同样包括产品体验等维度上的丰富。也许没有立竿见影的销量影响，但厚积而爆发，有竞争力的产品终会获得客户的认可和订单的保障。
