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Core topics:
Demand: Short-term demand is subdued, but there are still regional opportunities in the medium and long term
Supply: Panel makers strengthened production cuts, launching the most significant production cut in history
Supply, demand, and prices: Panel makers' strategies drive structural increases in panel prices in Q4
Risk warning: Whether LCD TV panel prices can rise periodically in the short term depends on three core factors

After a year-long market downturn, stabilizing prices and reducing losses have become the most urgent goals of panel makers. Although the end demand has not recovered and the procurement demand of global brands has continued to be weak, the inventory of the top brands will continue to decline and enter a relatively healthy range. And under the expectation that panel prices have bottomed out, Chinese makers have gradually started bottom fishing and stocking, and the panel stocking demand has shown a structural recovery in the short term. At the same time, panel makers have initiated the most significant production cut in history. In the gaming of the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, the excess supply and demand (S/D) environment has been eased, and panel prices are expected to rebound. However, does this mean that the TV panel market has gotten rid of the current industry dilemma? Usher in a new round of upcycling? Sigmaintell believes there are still many risks, and the S/D environment should be moderated rationally and restrained to protect the stable and orderly restoration of the market order.

Demand: Short-term demand is subdued, but there are still regional opportunities in the medium and long term

The overall demand in the end market is sluggish, and the medium and long-term demand in North America and emerging markets is relatively optimistic. In the short term, it is difficult to see a significant recovery in demand in various mainstream regions this year. Under the influence of overdraft demand and high inflation in the North American market, the market size will continue to decline in 2022, but the decline in panel prices and the sharp decline in logistics costs will form benign support for the recovery of North American market demand in 2023. In Europe, overshadowed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the energy crisis, its end market is likely to fall into a continuous recession. Under the influence of factors such as inflation, interest rate hike in the United States, and exchange rate fluctuations, TV demand in emerging markets has gradually diverged. Among them, the gradual expansion of the trade surplus in Southeast Asia is expected to drive the recovery of the TV market, but most other regions are dragged down by currency depreciation, and it is difficult to see their demand recovery. Due to the obvious impact of the epidemic on China's economy and the weakening of the rigid-demand characteristics of the TV category, the performance of China's TV market is not expected to grow.

Makers' purchasing strategies are differentiated, global brands continue to destock, and Chinese makers start strategic stockings. Under the influence of the sluggish demand in the European and American markets, Samsung Electronics' high-inventory operation strategy has encountered waterloo. Since the procurement shut down in June, although the procurement demand in Q4 has recovered MoM, it has still decreased significantly YoY; at the same time, the destocking strategy has also affected LG Electronics. The half-year procurement demand dropped significantly YoY. In contrast, the purchasing demand for Chinese brands in H2 showed a recovery trend. Under Hisense's long-term development strategy of "expanding the end market backward" + "consolidating the supply foundation forward,” the procurement demand maintained a YoY growth. TCL's inventory burden is light, and panel prices gradually bottomed out, so purchasing demand has also recovered in the second half of the year.

According to Sigmaintell’s statistics， the global Top 9 brands purchased 37.2 million TV panels in Q3. The number recovered to 38.8 million in Q4, a slight recovery QoQ but a sharp drop of 8.6% YoY, and it is difficult to see a recovery in short-term demand.

Supply: Panel makers intensified production cuts, launching the most significant production cut in history

Low demand and high inventory are the two most significant pressures on panel makers. Only continuous production control is the most effective way for panel makers to change the S/D situation in the short term.

Capacity: Panel makers intensified production cuts, and the UT rate in Q4 was lower than 70%

According to Sigmaintell’s data, top panel makers in mainland China began to reduce production in September further, driving the overall UT rate of G6 and above high-generation panel lines to drop to just over 60% from September to October. October was the historical low of the panel maker UT rate. As inventories gradually become healthy, it is expected that panel makers will slowly recover from November, and it is expected that the overall UT rate of G6 and higher LCD panel lines in Q4 will keep just below 70%.

Mainland panel makers began to intensify production cuts in September. In H1, mainland panel makers can still find a balance between market share and profits. As the price of LCD TV panels drops below cash costs, the profit balance becomes significantly unbalanced. To reduce losses, mainland makers are more determined to execute production cuts. BOE's pre-adjustment in capacity was mainly concentrated in Hefei G10.5 and Chengdu G8.6 and began further to reduce the capacity of G10.5 and G8.5 in September. The UT rate of TCL CSOT's Suzhou line in Q3 was less than 50%. So the capacity of G10.5 and G8.5 has been further reduced since September. HKC has also intensified production cuts in Chongqing and Chuzhou lines while controlling the ramp-up progress of the Mianyang and Changsha lines.

Panel makers in Taiwan China, continue to increase capacity in a profit-oriented manner. At the second-quarter earnings report meeting, Taiwan makers proposed that production and sales where the panel price falls below the cash cost are meaningless. This shows that the panel price is more determined to reduce production after it breaks the cash cost. AUO started a comprehensive production cut for G6~G8.5 in Q2, and the production cut was further expanded in Q3, among which the G6 and G7.5 UT rates were lowered to around 30%. Innolux also significantly declined its G6 and G7.5 film production plans in Q3. In September, the glass input level reached a low point, and the G7.5 UT rate was less than 50%.

Korean panel makers, LCD and OLED demand are both cold, facing severe business challenges. Affected by the sluggish overall market demand, LGD is under multiple pressures of high inventory and expanding losses. It is expected that LGD will accelerate its withdrawal from LCD TV panel supply in the future. Among them, South Korea's G7.5 is expected to close in the first half of next year while reducing the capacity allocation of LCD TV panels on Guangzhou's G8.5. Even more challenging is that the current demand for OLED TVs in the European and American markets is sluggish, and the UT rate of OLED production lines on G8.5 has also dropped significantly. The normal operation of enterprises is facing severe challenges.

According to Sigmaintell's estimates, affected by the production cut of panel makers, the global LCD TV panel supply area fell sharply by 20.4% YoY in Q3 and maintained a significant decline of 21.7% YoY in Q4. In the short-term, panel makers reduce production to form an effective control over supply. Under the circumstance that the fundamentals of supply and demand have not fundamentally changed, top panel makers need to form a joint force to continue rational control of global LCD TV panel capacity in the future.

Inventory: Small-size panel inventories tend to be healthy, while large-size panel inventories have fallen sharply but remain high

The demand for Q2~Q3 has dropped sharply. Although panel makers have controlled production to a certain extent, there are differences in the pace of capacity control, and the accumulated inventory has become a heavy burden for panel makers. In terms of size, at the end of Q3, the inventory of small-sized panels remained at a relatively healthy water level. Large-size panels, especially 65” and 75” panels, are expected to stay at a high level of more than two weeks by the end of the year due to the contraction of the procurement strategies of global brands, and there is still a long way to de-stocking.

Supply, demand, and prices: Panel makers' strategies drive structural increases in panel prices in Q4

According to Sigmaintell's “supply and demand” model, in Q4, driven by the low level of brand purchasing demand, the positive effect brought about by the large production cut of panel makers gradually played a role. The global LCD TV panel market in Q4 of 2022 The S/D ratio will gradually fall back to 7.1% (area benchmark), and the overall S/D environment is still loose, but small and medium-sized products without inventory pressure will gradually tend to be tight in supply.

Sigmaintell believes that from the perspective of S/D fundamentals, the panel market does not yet have the factor for price rebound when the demand has not recovered as expected. However, affected by the increasing losses of panel makers and the strengthening of production control efforts, following the factor that panel makers are particularly eager for price recovery, it is expected that driven by the strategy of panel makers, LCD TV panel prices will have the opportunity to usher in a short-term structural rise.

Risk warning: Sigmaintell estimates whether LCD TV panel prices can rise periodically in the short term depends on the following three core factors

1. Can end demand recover substantially?
The fourth quarter will enter the global traditional sales season, and China's "Double 11" promotion will be further strengthened; emerging markets such as India's "Diwali" are about to launch the most important promotion of the year; the North American end market is even more vigorous to increase sales, Including Amazon's increase in the "Prime Day" activity, "Black Friday" promotions and other activities, driven by factors such as cost reduction and brand impulse, can we usher in a signal of recovery in end-market demand? Suppose the peak sales season in Q4 can bring some signs of recovery to the current sluggish market. In that case, it will help greatly improve the stocking confidence of the industrial chain, thereby driving the recovery of stocking demand.

2. Can the circulation inventory of the industry chain be effectively de-stocking?
The inventory problem has always been a major problem for the industry, and as of the end of Q4, the inventory problem was still relatively severe. After two-quarters of destocking cycles for global brands, the inventory at the end of Q3 was still high. The inventory is expected to drop to a healthy level by the end of the year. Panel makers are expected to have their inventories healthy by the end of this year through a substantial production cut. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the gradual increase in inventories brought by Chinese brands and second-tier makers due to bottom fishing, which may impact subsequent demand.

3. Can panel makers continue to control production rationally?
Although the current development strategies of panel makers are not the same, when panel prices fall below the cash cost, panel makers have successively increased production cuts to combat the downturn. Under the current macro environment, supply and demand fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, making it difficult for end demand to recover strongly. Therefore, panel makers need to control panel supply capacity rationally.

中文部分：

核心观点 
需求：短期需求低迷，中长期区域性机会犹存
供应：面板厂商加大减产力度，启动了历史上最大幅度的减产
供需及价格：面板厂策略推动四季度面板价格结构性上涨
风险提示：LCD TV面板价格能否在短期形成周期性上涨取决于三大核心要素

在经历了长达一年之久的市场下行周期之后，稳价格和减亏损成为面板厂商当前最迫切的目标。虽然终端需求未实现恢复，国际品牌采购需求持续疲弱，但头部品牌库存持续下降并将进入相对健康区间，且在面板价格触底的预期下，中国厂商逐步启动策略性抄底备货，面板备货需求短期呈现结构性恢复。同时，面板厂商启动了历史上最大幅度的减产，在供应链上下游的极限拉扯中，过剩的供需环境得以缓解，面板价格有望迎来转折。但是，这是否意味着电视面板市场已经摆脱现行的行业困境？迎来新一轮的景气周期？群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，目前仍有诸多风险存在，应理智并克制地对待供需环境缓和，保护市场秩序稳定有序恢复。

需求：短期需求低迷，中长期区域性机会犹存

终端市场整体需求低迷，北美及新兴市场中长期需求相对乐观。短期来看，今年各主流区域需求难见明显恢复。北美市场在需求透支、高通胀因素影响下，2022年市场规模持续回落，但面板价格的走低以及物流成本的大幅回落均对2023年北美市场需求恢复形成了良性支撑。而笼罩在俄乌战争和能源危机的阴影当中的欧洲，其终端市场恐将陷入持续衰退。在通货膨胀、美国加息及汇率波动等因素影响下，新兴市场TV需求逐步走向分化，其中东南亚地区贸易顺差逐步扩大有望带动TV市场恢复，但其他大部分区域受货币贬值拖累需求难见复苏。疫情对中国经济发展影响明显，加之电视品类的刚性特征弱化，中国TV市场表现恐难以期待增长。

厂商采购策略分化，国际品牌持续去库存，中国厂商开启策略性备货。在欧美市场需求低迷影响下，三星电子高库存运营策略遭遇滑铁卢，自六月采购停摆以来，尽管四季度采购需求环比恢复，但同比依然大幅减少；同时，去库存策略同样影响着LG电子，下半年采购需求同比明显回落。相比来看，中国品牌下半年采购需求则呈现恢复态势。海信在“向后拓展终端市场”+“向前夯实供应基础”的长足发展策略下采购需求依然维持同比增长。TCL库存包袱轻，叠加面板价格逐步触底，下半年采购需求亦有所恢复。

群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据显示，全球Top9品牌三季度电视面板采购3720万片，四季度恢复至3880万片，环比小幅恢复，但同比依然大幅下降8.6%，短期需求难见恢复。

供应：面板厂商加大减产力度，启动了历史上最大幅度的减产

需求低迷和库存高企是压在面板厂商头顶上的两座大山。唯有持续控产是面板厂短期可以改变供需形势的最行之有效的方法。

产能：面板厂加大减产力度，四季度稼动率低于70%

根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调研数据，中国大陆的头部面板厂商9月开始进一步加大减产力度，带动9月~10月G6及以上高世代面板产线的整体稼动率降至略高于60%的水平，十月为面板厂稼动率水平的历史新低点。随着库存逐步趋于健康，预计从11月开始面板厂商投片将环比缓慢恢复，预计四季度G6及更高LCD面板产线整体稼动率将保持低于70%的低位运行。

大陆面板厂9月开始加大减产。如果说上半年大陆面板厂还能在市场份额和利润中寻找平衡点，随着LCD TV面板价格击破现金成本，利润天平开始明显失衡，为了减少亏损，大陆厂商加大减产的决心愈加清晰。京东方（BOE）前期产能调整主要集中在合肥G10.5和成都G8.6，9月开始进一步减少G10.5和G8.5的投片水平。TCL华星（CSOT）苏州产线三季度起稼动率不足50%，九月起G10.5投片进一步下调，同时减少G8.5投片。惠科（HKC）也加大了对重庆及滁州产线的减产力度，同时控制绵阳和长沙产线的爬坡进度。

中国台湾面板厂，以利润为导向持续加大产能。中国台湾厂商在二季度财报法说会上提出，面板价格跌至现金成本以下的生产销售是没有意义的，由此可见面板价格破现金成本后对减产是比较坚决的。友达（AUO）在二季度已对G6~G8.5启动了全面减产，三季度减产幅度进一步扩大，其中G6和G7.5稼动率下调至30%左右。群创（Innolux）三季度亦大幅下修了G6和G7.5投片计划，其中九月投片水平到达低谷，G7.5稼动率不足50%。

韩国面板厂，LCD和OLED需求双双遇冷，面临严峻的经营挑战 。受整体市场需求萎靡的影响，LGD正承受着库存高企以及亏损扩大的多重压力，预计未来将加速退出LCD TV面板供应，其中韩国G7.5预计在明年上半年关闭，同时缩减广州G8.5上LCD TV面板的产能分配。更为棘手的是，当前欧美市场OLED电视需求低迷，G8.5上OLED产线稼动率同样大幅下调，企业正常运营面临严峻挑战。

根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）测算，受面板厂减产影响，三季度全球LCD TV面板供应面积同比大幅下降20.4%，四季度同比维持21.7%的较大降幅。面板厂减产短期对供应形成有效控制，在供需基本面并未根本改变的情况下，未来头部面板厂商能否形成合力持续对全球LCD TV面板产能进行理性的控制显得尤为重要。

库存：小尺寸面板库存趋于健康，大尺寸库存大幅减少但依然处于高位

Q2~Q3需求急速锐减，虽然面板厂进行一定控产，但产能控制的步调存在差异，累积的库存成为面板厂商的沉重包袱。分尺寸来看，三季度末，小尺寸库存保持在相对健康的水位；而大尺寸面板尤其是65”及75”受国际品牌采购策略收缩影响，预计到年底依然位于2周以上偏高水位，库存去化依然任重道远。

供需及价格：面板厂策略推动四季度面板价格结构性上涨

根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell） “供需模型”测算数据，四季度在品牌采购需求低位小幅恢复的拉动下，面板厂大幅减产带来的正向效应逐渐发挥作用，2022年四季度全球LCD TV面板市场供需比将逐渐回落到7.1%（面积基准），整体供需环境依然宽松，但没有库存压力的中小尺寸产品将由宽松逐渐趋向供应紧张。

群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，从供需基本面来看，在需求没有恢复预期的情况下，面板市场尚不具备价格反弹的因素。但受面板厂亏损加大以及控产力度加强影响，叠加面板厂商对于价格恢复的意愿尤为迫切，预计在面板厂商策略推动下，LCD TV面板价格有机会迎来结构性短期上涨。

风险提示：LCD TV面板价格能否在短期形成周期性上涨，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为取决于以下三大核心要素。

1、终端需求能否实质性复苏？
四季度将进入全球传统销售旺季，中国“双11”促销力度进一步加大；新兴市场如印度的“排灯节”即将展开全年最重要的大促；北美终端市场更是铆足劲提升销售，包括亚马逊增加“Prime 会员早享日”活动，“黑五”促销等活动，在成本下降和品牌冲量等因素的驱动下，能否迎来终端市场需求恢复的信号？如果四季度的销售旺季能够给目前低迷的市场带来一些恢复的信号，将有利于大幅提升产业链的备货信心，从而带动备货需求的恢复。

2、产业链流通库存是否真正有效去化？
库存问题一直是摆在行业面前的突出问题，截至三季度末库存问题依然相对严峻。国际品牌经过2个季度的去库存周期，三季度末库存依然偏高，预计到年底库存有望降至健康水位。面板厂通过大幅度减产，到今年底库存有望趋于健康，但需要留意中国品牌以及二线厂商因抄底备货带来的库存逐步走高，恐对后续需求产生一定冲击。

3、面板厂商能否持续理性控产？
尽管面板厂当前发展策略不尽相同，但当面板价格跌破现金成本后，面板厂商陆续加大减产以对抗低迷环境。在当前的宏观环境下，供需基本面并没有发生根本性的改变，终端需求难以得到强劲恢复，因此面板厂商能否持续对面板供应产能进行理性控制尤为重要。