相关链接

Core point:

Panel Shipments: Seasonal Index Shows "L" Shape, Average Size Declines For The First Time

Panel Maker Strategy: Initiate the Largest Production Cut in History

Supply and demand and prices: Supply and demand continued to be in excess in Q3, and prices maintained a downward trend

Out of the dilemma: actively promote cost reduction and efficiency increase, and need to increase the scale of production cut in the short term

The first half of 2022 has passed quietly. Under the impact of multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, global hyperinflation, and demand overdraft, the global TV panel market has ushered in the darkest moment. The end demand in the global TV market continues to be sluggish, brands are deeply controlling their inventory, the prices of LCD TV panels have fallen below the cash cost, and panel makers have also started the largest production cut in history. In 22H2, there are still relatively large uncertainties in the end market. The key to stabilize supply and demand in the global LCD TV panel market in 22H2 is whether the adjustment of panel maker capacity can catch up with the decline of the demand for brand panel purchasing.

Panel Shipments: Seasonal Index Shows "L" Shape, Average Size Declines For The First Time

The seasonal index showed an "L" shape, and demand will remain weak in 22H2. The annual seasonal index of the global LCD TV panel market usually presents a "V"-shaped characteristic, but the seasonal index of panel shipments in 2022 appears to be an "L"-shaped. The peak season in 22H2 is not prosperous, and demand will still be weak.

• Q1: Affected by factors such as high inflation, high shipping costs, and demand overdraft in the end market, the retail performance was not as good as expected, and the demand for large-size panels of top brands was sluggish; Second-tier makers started the first round of bargain hunting and stocking, which drove the number of panel shipments in Q1 to a record high in Q1 and became the peak of the year.

• Q2: The Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, and the demand in the European market uncontrollably declined. Brand purchasing demand shrank to a new low in the past ten years than expected. Large-size demand continued to deteriorate, and small-size demand also declined. Panel shipments decreased rapidly in Q2.

• Q3: Samsung suspended panel purchases and is expected to continue its inventory control strategy in Q3. At the same time, pessimism spreads and affects the purchasing confidence of other brands, and panel shipments in Q3 may not be prosperous in the peak season.

• Q4: As shipping costs continue to fall, panel prices decline to a low level, and brand inventory tends to be healthy, it is expected that the stocking demand for top brand panels, especially large-size demand, is expected to resume growth in Q4, but there is no strong recovery in end consumption. It is difficult to expect a strong recovery in shipments.

According to Sigmaintell's data, the global LCD TV panel shipment is expected to be 260 million in 2022, of which 68 million were shipped in Q1, accounting for 26.5% of the annual shipment; From Q2 to Q4, it is expected that the quarterly shipment level will fluctuate around 62 million pieces, and the seasonal index is difficult to exceed 25%, and the seasonal index has an obvious "L" shape.

The large-scale size was hindered, and the average size and area decreased YOY. The upgrade and iteration of the generation line drive the process of large-size, which is the main trend of the development of the global TV panel market. However, the average size of the global LCD TV panel market will decline for the first time in 2022. The main reasons are as follows:

First, due to factors such as high inflation, high shipping costs, and demand overdrafts, the demand for large-size TVs in the North American market has been significantly suppressed;

Second, high inflation has brought about a global downgrade of consumption, hindering the process of large-scale size;

Third, panel prices drive makers to be more aggressive in stocking small sizes. The 32-inch panel with high price elasticity is the most typical, and the second-tier market demand, such as OEM/ODMs and distributors, occupies half of its shipments. When the price of the panel fell to a relatively low level, the enthusiasm of the second-tier makers was ignited, and the stocking behavior of the second-tier makers pushed up the 32-inch shipment level of the panel maker.

According to Sigmaintell's data, the overall average size in 2022 is 47.7 inches, a decrease of 0.8 inches YOY. In the first three quarters, due to the sluggish demand for large sizes and the high level of 32-inch shipments, the average size is lower than that in 2021. It is expected that with the advent of the "11.11" promotion season in China, the inventory of brands and channels in the North American market tends to be healthy, and the logistics and panel costs will further decline. It is expected to drive the recovery of large-size demand, thereby promoting the global average size of LCD TV panels to increase to 49.3 inches in Q4, a significant increase of 2 inches from the previous quarter.

The OLED panel market is also difficult to survive alone, falling into the dual dilemma of loss expectations and shrinking volumes. In the background of high global inflation, especially the decline in demand in Europe and North America, the demand for OLED TV panels has been hit hard. First, high inflation has had a severe impact on the demand for entry-level OLED TVs. Secondly, the impact of the price difference of LCD panels has intensified, the price of OLED TV panels has remained high for a long time, and the profits of TV brands have been squeezed, which has led to more conservative strategies and further suppressed demand. Finally, Samsung Electronics suspended the launch of WOLED products in 2022, which has caused a heavy blow to LGD's annual OLED TV panel shipments. Affected by the above factors, the shipment of WOLED panels in 2022 will be much lower than expected, with high inventories starting from the first quarter and gradually reducing the UT of the G8.5 OLED panel production line in South Korea from the second quarter. The reduction in the UT is accompanied by an increase in costs, and the WOLED panel business may fall into the dual dilemma of loss expectations and shrinking volumes. Overall, according to Sigmaintell’s data, with the support of SDC QD Display panels, the global OLED TV panel shipments in 2022 will be 8.88 million units, an increase of 15.0% YoY, which is lower than expected.

Panel maker strategy: Initiate the largest production cut in history

As LCD TV panel prices have fallen below cash costs; panel makers are under enormous pressure to lose money. It is difficult to expect the recovery of end demand in the short term, and panel makers have started the production cut, but each maker has different strategies.

BOE passively reduced production, mainly reducing the capacity of G10.5 and G8.6. Thanks to the advantages of balanced development of multiple categories, the profit of IT panels can still provide a certain guarantee for a high UT and stable operation to BOE. However, after global brands such as Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics made clear their strategy of continuing to control inventory in Q3, the demand situation was not optimistic, and passive production cuts were initiated. Among them, the UT of G8.6 and G10.5 lines has been lowered to a certain extent.

CSOT, the pace of production cut is steadily progressing, mainly reducing the supply of 65-inch and 75-inch panels. CSOT is very dependent on two major customers: Samsung and TCL. Samsung's procurement strategy adjustment has put enormous pressure on CSOT, and it has reduced production since June. CSOT 's capacity adjustment is mainly focused on the supply of 65-inch and 75-inch panels.

HKC's ramp-up slowed down, and production expansion was delayed. Affected by the decline in demand, HKC faces greater shipping resistance and inventory pressure. HKC has also gradually started capacity control since June, which is mainly reflected in the slowdown of the new H4 and H5 lines. It is expected that the UT will remain at a low level in Q3.

Taiwan's panel makers have differentiated strategies and are oriented to operating profit. For Taiwan panel makers, once the price of LCD TV panels hits the red line of cost and drags down profit performance, they will accelerate the contraction of the TV business. AUO has adjusted its capacity since the beginning of Q2. As the demand for various applications continues to decline, the adjustment range of UT gradually spreads from G6 to G8.5. Innolux's UT adjustment is relatively conservative, mainly reflected in the further control of the 50-inch supply and the transfer of TV capacity to IT, and the supply of TV panels continues to decline.

South Korean panel makers have withdrawn some capacity, and the competitiveness of LCD TV panels has weakened. The cost competitiveness of LCD TV panels of Korean makers is low. As panel prices fall uncontrollably, they will more resolutely implement production control. SDC has closed all of its LCD TV panel production lines and started to maintain inventory shipments in June; The LGD G7.5 line has been gradually reduced since May, and the capacity of Guangzhou's G8.5 line has also been controlled.

Overall, as panel makers have started to cut production, it has had a certain adjustment effect on the global supply of LCD TV panels. According to Sigmaintell’s data, in Q2, the global LCD TV panel supply area decreased by 1.4% YoY and 2.9% MoM. It is expected that the global LCD TV panel supply area will further decline by 7.3% YoY in Q3. However, in Q3, panel demand fell into a deep destocking cycle, and the decline in panel procurement demand was still higher than the reduction in panel maker production. The global LCD TV panel supply and demand situation are still not optimistic.

Supply and demand and prices: Supply and demand continues to be in excess in Q3, and prices maintaine a downward trend

In Q3, the two major South Korean brands still strictly controlled their inventory, so the purchasing strategies of Chinese brands also fell into conservative expectations. According to Sigmaintell’s data, the global top 9 TV panel brand purchase demand is expected to be less than 35 million units in Q3, the lowest level in the past five years. On the supply side, although top panel makers have initiated passive production cuts, the reduction in capacity still cannot keep up with the decline in demand. According to Sigmaintell's data, the global LCD TV panel market S/D ratio will reach 8.6% in Q3, and the supply and demand will continue to be in excess. It is expected that panel prices will maintain a downward trend at a low level.

Out of the dilemma: actively promote cost reduction and efficiency increase, and need to increase the scale of production cut in the short term

The price of LCD TV panels continues to decline, while the prices of other types of panels also show an accelerated downward trend. So the pressure on panel makers to lose money increased sharply. However, the global economic and political environment is still unstable, and high inflation may not be effectively alleviated in the short term. Therefore, it is difficult to expect a strong recovery in the global TV market demand. At this dark moment, how can TV panel makers get out of the dilemma? When will supply and demand return to balance? When will panel prices stop declining? Sigmaintell believes that in the short term, it is necessary to increase the scale of production cut. At the same time, since cost is the core competitiveness, cost reduction and efficiency improvement should be actively promoted.

For more analysis and forecast content, Sigmaintell's global TV panel and set maker analysis team will share it at the Sigmaintell Y2022 Global High-Tech Industry Strategic Analysis Seminar on July 19-20.

中文：

 核心观点：

面板出货：季节指数呈现“L”型，平均尺寸首次出现衰退

面板厂策略： 启动史上最大规模减产

供需及价格： 三季度供需持续过剩，价格维持下降趋势

走出寒冬：积极推动降本增效，短期需加大减产力度

2022年上半年悄然过去，受地缘政治冲突，全球性超级通胀以及需求透支等多重因素冲击下，全球TV面板市场迎来了至暗时刻。全球电视市场终端需求持续低迷，品牌深度控制库存，LCD电视面板价格纷纷跌破现金成本，面板厂亦开启了有史以来最大幅度的减产。下半年，终端市场依然存在较大不确定因素，面板厂产能调整幅度能否追赶品牌面板备货需求下滑的幅度，是下半年全球LCD电视面板市场供需能否企稳的关键。

面板出货：季节指数呈现“L”型，平均尺寸首次出现衰退

季节指数呈现“L”型，下半年需求依旧疲软。通常情况下，全球LCD 电视面板市场每年的季节指数呈现“V”型特点，而2022年面板出货数量的季节指数恐将出现“L”型，下半年旺季不旺，需求依旧疲软。

一季度：终端市场在高通胀、高海运成本及需求透支等因素影响下，零售表现不如预期，头部品牌大尺寸面板需求低迷；小尺寸面板，特别是32英寸价格下跌至40美金以内，二线厂商启动第一轮抄底备货，拉动一季度面板出货数量创一季度历史新高，并成为全年规模顶峰。

二季度：俄乌战争爆发，欧洲市场需求失速下滑，品牌采购需求超预期收缩至近十年新低，大尺寸需求持续恶化，小尺寸需求亦出现下滑，二季度面板出货迅速回落。

三季度：三星（Samsung）暂停面板采购，预计到三季度依然坚定执行控库存策略。同时，悲观情绪蔓延并影响其他品牌的采购信心，三季度面板出货恐旺季不旺。

四季度：随着海运成本持续回落、面板价格降至低位、品牌库存趋于健康，预计四季度头部品牌面板备货需求特别是大尺寸需求有望恢复增长，但终端消费力尚无强劲恢复预期下，出货也难以期待强劲恢复。

群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预测数据显示，2022年全球LCD TV面板出货预计2.6亿片，其中一季度出货6800万片，占全年出货规模的26.5%；二~四季度，预计季度出货水平在6200万片水平上下波动，季节指数难以超过25%，季节指数呈现明显的“L”型特点。

大尺寸化受阻，平均尺寸及面积同比下降。世代线的升级迭代驱动大尺寸化进程，大尺寸化是贯穿全球电视面板市场发展的主轴。但2022年全球LCD 电视面板市场平均尺寸首次出现衰退，主要原因有以下几个方面：

第一，受高通胀、高海运成本、需求透支等因素的影响，北美市场大尺寸电视需求受到明显抑制；

第二，高通胀带来全球范围内消费降级，阻碍了大尺寸化进程；

第三，面板价格驱动厂商对小尺寸备货更加激进。以价格弹性高的32英寸面板最为典型，代工厂、经销商等二线市场需求占据了其出货的半壁江山，面板价格降至相对低位，二线厂商抄底备货热情被点燃，推高了面板厂32英寸的出货水平。

根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）测算数据，2022年整体平均尺寸47.7英寸，同比下降0.8英寸，其中前三季度因大尺寸需求低迷，加上32英寸出货水平维持高位，平均尺寸低于2021年的平均水平。预计四季度随着中国“11.11”促销季来临，加之北美市场随着品牌及渠道库存趋于健康、物流及面板成本的进一步下探，有望带动大尺寸需求恢复，从而推动四季度全球LCD 电视面板平均尺寸增加至49.3英寸，环比大幅增加2英寸。

OLED面板市场亦难独善其身，陷入亏损预期和缩量的双重困境。在全球高通胀的背景下，尤其是欧洲及北美需求下滑，对OLED电视面板需求产生重创。首先，高通胀对OLED电视入门级产品需求产生了严重冲击。其次，来自于LCD面板的价差冲击加剧，OLED电视面板价格长期维持高位，电视品牌利润受挤压，策略趋于保守，需求被进一步抑制。最后，三星电子暂停了2022年WOLED产品上市，对LGD全年OLED 电视面板出货形成重创。受以上因素的影响，2022年WOLED面板出货将远低于预期，从一季度开始背负高库存，并从二季度开始逐步调减了韩国G8.5代OLED 面板产线的稼动率，稼动率下调伴随着成本的增加，WOLED面板业务恐将陷入亏损预期和缩量的双重困境。整体来看，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）的统计数据，在SDC QD Display面板的加持下，2022年全球OLED 电视面板出货量为888万片，同比增长15.0%，增幅低于预期。

面板厂策略： 启动史上最大规模减产

随着LCD 电视面板价格纷纷跌破现金成本，面板厂商承受着巨大的亏损压力。短期内难以期待终端需求恢复，面板厂商纷纷启动了减产，但各个厂商策略不一。

京东方（BOE），被动减产，主要减少G10.5和G8.6的产能供应。得益于多品类均衡发展的优势，IT面板获利依然能够为公司经营输血，为BOE保持高稼动率和稳定运营提供了一定的保障。但随着三星电子及LG电子等国际品牌明确三季度继续控库存的策略后，需求形势不容乐观并启动被动减产。其中G8.6和G10.5代线稼动率有一定的下调。

TCL华星（CSOT），减产步伐稳步推进，主要减少65英寸和75英寸面板供应。CSOT对三星和TCL两大客户的依赖度非常高，三星的采购策略调整对CSOT产生巨大压力，并从6月开始减产。华星产能调整主要集中在65英寸和75英寸面板供应。

惠科（HKC），爬坡放缓，扩产延后。受需求下滑的影响，惠科面临较大的出货阻力和库存压力。惠科从6月开始亦逐步开启产能控制，主要表现在H4和H5新线爬坡放缓，预计三季度稼动率维持较低水平。

台湾面板厂策略分化，以营业利润为导向。对于中国台湾面板厂来说，一旦LCD 电视面板价格触及成本红线，拖累利润表现，他们将加速收缩TV业务。AUO自二季度初期已进行产能的调整，随着各应用需求持续下滑，稼动率调整范围从G6向G8.5逐渐蔓延。群创（Innolux）稼动率调整相对保守，主要表现在进一步控制50英寸供应，以及TV产能向IT转移，电视面板供应呈现持续下降趋势。

韩国面板厂，部分产能退出，LCD电视面板竞争力弱化。韩厂LCD电视面板成本竞争力低，随着面板价格失速下跌，将更加坚决执行控产。SDC 已关闭其所有的LCD 电视面板产线，6月开始维持库存出货；LGD G7.5代线从5月开始逐步下调，广州的G8.5代线产能亦有所控制。

整体来看，随着面板厂纷纷开启减产，对全球LCD 电视面板供应起到了一定的调节效果。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，二季度全球LCD TV面板供应面积同比减少1.4%，环比减少2.9%。预计三季度全球LCD TV面板供应面积同比进一步下降7.3%。但是三季度面板需求陷入深度去库存周期，面板采购需求下降的幅度依然高于面板厂减产的幅度，全球LCD 电视面板供需形势依然不容乐观。

供需及价格： 三季度供需持续过剩，价格维持下降趋势

三季度，双韩品牌依旧严格控库存，受此影响中国品牌采购策略同样陷入保守预期。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据显示，预计三季度全球Top 9 品牌TV面板采购需求不到3500万台，创近五年来最低水平。供应侧，尽管头部面板厂已启动被动减产，但产能减少的幅度仍无法跟上需求端的下降的幅度。【原文链接】根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）“供需模型”测算数据（面积基准）显示，、三季度全球LCD TV面板市场供需比将达8.6%，供需持续过剩，预计面板价格在低位水平将维持下降趋势。

走出寒冬：积极推动降本增效，短期需加大减产力度

LCD电视面板价格持续下降、同时其他品类面板价格亦呈现加速下降的趋势，面板厂商亏损压力随之剧增。而全球经济政治环境依然动荡，高通胀恐难以在短期内有效缓解，因此，全球电视市场需求难以期待强劲恢复。在此至暗时刻，电视面板厂商如何走出寒冬？供需关系何时恢复平衡？面板价格何时能止跌？群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，短期需加大减产力度；同时由于成本是核心竞争力，应积极推动降本增效。更多分析及预测内容，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）全球TV面板及整机分析团队将于7月19~20日在2022年全球高科技产业策略研判峰会中分享。