In 22Q1, the global smartphone panel market was weak, and the supply and demand of various technologies were in a loose state. Three main factors affect the demand for smartphone panels: First, the post-epidemic era superimposed on the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" had resulted in a less-than-expected recovery of the global economy, hyperinflation was continued to intensify, and the consumption capacity of the global residents was weakened. Second, as the domestic epidemics repeated, combined with the background of "Persisting Dynamic Clearing,” consumers' motivations to change phones were weakened, making mobile phone makers less confident in the stocking. Third, affected by the high inventory of parts and components last year, the demand for smartphone panels continued to decline in the first quarter.
The global smartphone panel shipments were approximately 436 million units in 22Q1, a YoY decrease of roughly 12.5%, of which the flexible OLED smartphone panel shipment was about 83 million units, a YoY increase about 10.1%.
According to Sigmaintell's global smartphone panel shipment tracking data, the global smartphone smart panel shipments in the first quarter were about 436 million units (Open Cell statistics), a YoY decrease of approximately 12.5% and a QoQ decrease of roughly 14.7%, and the overall shipment continued to decline. Throughout the year, under the suppression of many unfavorable factors, the growth momentum of the global smartphone market is insufficient, and the global smartphone panel demand is expected to show a downward trend in 2022.
From the perspective of product structure, affected by smartphones’ weak global demand, except for flexible OLED panels, the shipments of other smartphone panel technologies have declined to various degrees. In the LCD panel market, for set brands, to seize overseas market share and reduce costs, the decline of the a-Si market is relatively slow. In 22Q1, the global shipment of a-Si smartphone panels is about 189 million, a YoY decrease of approximately 10.8%. Except for Apple and Samsung Electronics, other set brands have a relatively conservative procurement strategy for LTPS LCD smartphone panels in the first quarter. Apple’s panel stocking has also decreased due to the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone SE (2022). The overall demand for LTPS LCD smartphone panels was weak in the first quarter, and about 107 million LTPS LCD smartphone panels were shipped in 22Q1, about a 21.2% YoY decrease.
The shipment of rigid OLED smartphone panels was about 57 million pieces in 22Q1, about a 24.4% YoY decrease, mainly due to three factors: First, the rigid OLED inventory of leading set brands in 2021 was relatively high; Second, due to the pricing strategy flexible OLED and LTPS LCD, set brands could have more alternatives; Third, affected by the active capacity allocation of Korean factories, more rigid OLED capacity has been transferred to IT and other medium-size applications, reducing the applications on mobile phones.
The mid-to-high-end market is still a critical point for set makers to overcome and make profits. The shipments of flexible OLED smartphone panels for mid-to-high-end models are still rising in the first quarter. The global shipments of flexible OLED smartphone panels were about 83 million in 22Q1, a YoY increase of approximately 10.1%.
BOE and Samsung's "Duopoly" pattern continues; Tianma continues to lead LTPS LCD panel shipments
Global smartphone panel shipments in 22Q1 were approximately 436 million units, a YoY decrease of roughly 12.5%. BOE, SDC, and Tianma ranked the top three.
BOE's smartphone panel shipments in 22Q1 were about 108 million, and the shipment share continued to lead the world. As the a-Si smartphone panel market leader, its customer structure is relatively stable. Brand customers, including Xiaomi, Samsung, OPPO, and vivo, still occupy a relatively high share of order shipments. At the same time, its high-end flexible OLED have also been recognized by set brands, and shipments in the first quarter maintained significant growth. According to data from Sigmaintell, BOE's flexible OLED smartphone panel shipments in the first quarter were nearly 16 million, a YoY increase of about 46.2%, ranking second in the world and first in China.
SDC ranked second with about 97 million units of shipments, and its OLED smartphone panel shipment market share was approximately 69.2%, decreased by nearly five percentage points YoY. Among them, rigid OLED was affected by the fierce competition from flexible OLED panel makers in mainland China and some leading set brands' excessive rigid OLED inventory last year. SDC 's rigid OLED smartphone panel shipments in the first quarter were about 47.7 million pieces, showing a YoY downward trend. At the same time, benefit from orders from Apple's iPhone and SEC, its flexible OLED shipments were about 49.1 million units, a YoY increase of about 6.8%.
In the first quarter, the OLED panels’ mainland shipments were about 33.5 million, accounting for about 23.9% of the global market, an increase about 6% YoY.
In 22Q1, the global OLED smartphone panel shipments were 140 million units, a YoY decrease of about 7.0%, of which flexible OLED shipments were about 83 million units, a YoY increase of approximately 10.1%; Rigid OLED shipments were about 57 million units, a YoY decrease of about 24.4%. From a regional perspective, with the release of the capacity of domestic OLED panel makers and the increasing recognition of domestic OLED panel makers by set brands, the market share of domestic OLED panel makers has also gradually increased. In 22Q1, the OLED panel shipments of mainland Chinese manufacturers were about 33.5 million, a YoY increase of 24.7%, and their global market share was approximately 23.9%, a YoY increase of about 6%.
Benefiting from the high-end OLED panel orders for leading smartphones such as Apple, BOE's flexible OLED smartphone panel shipments achieved significant YoY growth. In addition, Visionox has also shown a rapid growth trend driven by orders from brand customers such as Honor. Visionox's OLED smartphone panel shipments in 22Q1 were about 6.29 million, a YoY increase of approximately 18.7%, ranking fourth in the world and second in China. Its LTPO panels have been mass-produced on the high-end model——Honor Magic4.
Prospect: Collaborate on Supply and Demand, Breakthrough in High-end market, Adjust Business Layout, and Concentrate on the main points.
Affected by repeated epidemics and geopolitics, the performance of the global smartphone market is sluggish, and end-users have insufficient motivation to change new phones. It isn’t easy to recover in the short term. In 2022, the upstream and downstream supply chains will face more challenges. Sigmaintell has the following two suggestions:
First, collaborate on supply and demand; make breakthroughs in high-end markets; use "High Added Value" to resist "Scale Downturn.”
The global supply chain is still volatile in the overall dynamic environment. Under the current background, "stable operation" has become the overall strategy, mainly reflected in the shift of core demands from pursuing large-scale sales to pursuing profit and high quality. In 2022, the smartphone set market demand is weak, but the replacement of mid-to-high-end phones will be less affected by the external environment. The mid-to-high-end market will still become the focus of profit and conquer for set makers. Therefore, the corresponding LTPO, folding, extremely narrow bezels, and other display new technology products’ development and innovation would also be the key to the profit margins for panel makers.
Second, Adjust the business layout appropriately, and concentrate on the main points. "Storing grains widely and building high walls" is still the priority suggestion.
The global political and economic structure is still reshaping; the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the epidemic are continuing. A stable political and geopolitical environment is the foundation of economic development. We cannot underestimate the possibility of the continued deterioration of the external environment in the near future and be mentally prepared for a black swan event. Therefore, it is recommended that panel makers shrink their business layout appropriately, allocate company resources priority, concentrate on business development points, and resist possible industry risks more efficiently and intelligently.
中文：
群智研究｜全球智能手机面板市场疲软，建议高端突破、聚焦发力点
2022年一季度全球智能手机面板市场表现疲软，各技术别供需均处于宽松状态。有三方面主要因素影响智能手机面板需求：其一，后疫情时代叠加“俄乌冲突”， 导致全球经济恢复不如预期，超级通胀持续加剧，全球居民消费能力走弱；其二，国内疫情反复，在“坚持动态清零”的大背景下，消费者换机动力减弱，使得手机厂商备货信心不足；其三，受去年零部件高库存影响，一季度智能手机面板需求持续走低。
2022年一季度全球智能手机面板出货量约4.36亿片，同比下降约12.5%，其中柔性OLED智能手机面板出货约8300万，同比增长约10.1%
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）全球智能手机面板出货追踪数据，一季度全球智能手机智能面板出货约4.36亿片（Open Cell统计口径），同比下降约12.5%，环比下降约14.7%，整体出货持续走低。纵观全年，在诸多利空因素的抑制下，全球智能手机市场的增长动力不足，预计2022年全球智能手机面板需求将呈下降趋势。
从产品结构来看，受全球智能手机需求疲软的影响，除柔性OLED面板外，智能手机面板其他技术别出货均出现不同程度的下滑。在LCD面板市场，终端品牌为抢占海外市场份额以及降低成本，a-Si市场的衰退速度相对较慢，2022年一季度全球a-Si智能手机面板出货约1.89亿片，同比下滑约10.8%。除Apple、三星电子外，其他终端品牌一季度LTPS LCD智能手机面板采购策略相对保守，Apple因iPhone SE（2022）需求不如预期，面板备货也相应有所减少。一季度整体LTPS LCD智能手机面板需求偏弱，2022年一季度LTPS LCD智能手机面板出货约1.07亿片，同比下滑约21.2%。
2022年一季度刚性OLED智能手机面板出货约0.57亿片，同比下滑约24.4%，主要受三方面因素影响：其一，头部终端品牌2021年刚性OLED库存较高；其二，受到柔性OLED和LTPS LCD的价格策略排挤，使得终端品牌有更多的替换选择；其三，受到韩厂主动产能调配影响，将更多的刚性OLED产能转移到IT等中尺寸应用，减少在手机端应用所致。
中高端市场依然成为整机厂商获利及攻克的重点，为中高端机型所需的柔性OLED智能手机面板一季度出货仍然呈增长趋势，2022年一季度全球柔性OLED智能手机面板出货约0.83亿，同比增长约10.1%。
京东方、三星 “双寡头” 格局延续，天马持续引领LTPS LCD面板出货
2022年第一季度全球智能手机面板出货量约为4.36亿部，同比下降约12.5%。京东方（BOE）、三星显示（SDC）、天马（Tianma）位列出货前三位。
京东方（BOE）2022年一季度智能手机面板出货量约1.08亿片，出货份额仍持续引领全球。作为a-Si智能手机面板市场的领头羊，其客户结构比较稳定，包括小米、三星、OPPO、vivo在内的品牌客户订单出货仍然占据较高的份额。同时其高端柔性OLED也纷纷得到终端品牌认可，一季度出货保持显著增长。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，一季度京东方柔性OLED智能手机面板出货量近1600万片，同比增长约46.2%，位列全球第二，国内第一。
三星显示（SDC）以约0.97亿片的出货量位列第二，其OLED智能手机面板的出货量市场份额约69.2%，同比下降近5个百分点。其中刚性OLED受到大陆地区柔性OLED面板厂的激烈竞争以及去年部分头部终端品牌过高的刚性OLED库存影响，三星显示的刚性OLED智能手机面板一季度出货量约4770万片，同比呈现下降趋势。与此同时，得益于苹果iPhone及三星手机（SEC）的订单拉动，其柔性OLED出货量约为4910万片，同比增长约6.8%。
一季度大陆OLED面板出货约3350万片，全球市占约23.9%，同比上升约6个百分点
2022年一季度全球OLED智能手机面板出货1.40亿片，同比下滑约7.0%；其中柔性OLED出货约8300万片，同比增长约10.1%；刚性OLED出货约5700万片，同比下滑约24.4%。分区域来看，随着国内OLED面板厂的产能释放以及终端品牌对国内OLED面板厂的认可度提升，国内OLED面板厂的市场份额也逐步提升。2022年一季度中国大陆厂商的OLED面板出货量约3350万片，同比增长24.7%，其全球市占率约为23.9%，同比增长约6个百分点。
受益于苹果等头部智能手机的高端OLED面板订单，京东方（BOE）的柔性OLED智能手机面板出货同比实现大幅增长。除此之外，维信诺（Visionox）也在荣耀（Honor）等终端品牌客户订单的拉动下呈现了快速增长趋势。维信诺2022年一季度OLED智能手机面板出货量约为629万片，同比增长约18.7%，位列全球第四，国内第二，其LTPO面板在高端机型荣耀Magic4上已实现量产。
展望篇：供需协作，高端突破，调整业务布局，聚焦发力点
受到疫情反复和地缘政治的影响，全球智能手机市场表现低迷，终端用户换机动力不足，短期内难以复苏，2022年供应链上下游将面临更多考验，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）建议两点：
首先，供需协作，高端突破，以 “高附加值”抵御 “规模下行”。
在整体动态的环境中，全球供应链仍存在极大不稳定性，在当前大背景下，“稳健经营”成为总体策略，主要表现在将核心诉求从规模销量的追求转移到对利润及高品质的追求。2022年智能手机终端市场需求疲软，中高端换机受外围环境影响较小，中高端市场依然成为整机厂商获利及攻克的重点，因此相应的LTPO、折叠、极窄边框等显示新技术产品的开发和创新也是面板厂商获得利润空间的关键。
其次，适当调整业务布局，聚焦发力点，“广积粮、高筑墙”依然是当下优先建议。
全球政治经济格局依然在重塑过程中，俄乌冲突以及病毒疫情的影响依然延续，稳定的政治地缘环境是经济发展的基础，不能低估近期可能持续恶化的外部环境，同时也要为应对可能出现的黑天鹅事件做好心理准备。因此，建议面板厂适当收缩业务布局，将公司资源进行优先分配，聚焦业务发力点，以更高效及智慧的方式抵御可能出现的行业风险。
洞察
