In 2022, the world situation is complex and changeable, including the continued growth of a series of economic problems arising from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the differentiation of the epidemic situation, as well as the anti-epidemic policies in various countries, the US dollar appreciation, and inflation intensifies. All these factors combined take a heavy toll on the Global TV Industry and significantly impact rebuilding confidence in the recovery of future demand. The cold winter has come, and the spring is still far away. We will carefully explore whether the TV panel market can recover its vitality in the upcoming global purchasing season and how to recover its energy.
Demand-side: The scale shrinks more than expected, and the large-size recovery momentum is enhanced
In the first half of the year, the peak sales season for the end TV market has not yet arrived but blows from politics, the economy, and other aspects have come one after another. The market demand has fallen into a pessimistic situation; Global LCD TV panel market demand shrinks more than expected.
End market demand is challenging to recover in the short term. Entering 2022, if the adverse effects of the US dollar interest rate hike and intensified inflation on the market are beginning to emerge, then the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war has made the pessimistic predicament of the global TV market clearer. The retail performance of the North American market continued to be dismal, the European market demand continued to be sluggish, and it was difficult to expect the recovery of the economy and demand in emerging countries. Coupled with the outbreaks of the epidemic, the Chinese market was initially scheduled to usher in weak growth driven by the "618" promotional season, but as the economic damage affects, the demand may continue to decline at a low level. Overall, it is difficult for the end market to recover in the short term. But Sigmaintell believes that with the continuous decline of panel prices and the gradual stabilization of North American logistics costs, the energy of the recovery of large-size medium for long-term demand will gradually increase.
Channel and brand purchasing strategies continued to be conservative. Under the expectation that the end-market demand will be challenging to recover in the short term, channels and brands insist on purchasing on-demand to reduce the risk of set inventory. Affected by the war, global brands swiftly tightened their procurement strategies, including Samsung Electronics starting the revision of panel orders from the end of the first quarter; LG Electronics tightened the inventory risk control and conservative panel procurement in the second quarter. The impact of epidemic control on demand and logistics has lowered the expectations of Chinese brands for the semi-annual promotion and affected Xiaomi, TCL, and other leading brands to maintain the panel procurement strategy of "determining production based on sales and purchasing production" in the second quarter. In North America, the channel has also delayed the purchase target of "Black Friday,” and no significant number of valid orders have been reached so far. According to statistics from Sigmaintell, under the influence of conservative procurement strategies of global brands in the second quarter, the number of global Top 9 brand TV panels purchased was 37 million, a YoY decrease of 15.9% and a QoQ decrease of 10.8%. The panel purchasing requirements are weak.
The demand for panels in the second-tier market has cooled down, and the need for small sizes has declined. Since 21Q4, taking advantage of logistics costs and the rapid price correction, the demand for small-sized panel stocking has shown a relatively strong performance, mainly due to the recovery of the second-tier market demand, supplemented by the increase in brand demand. Second-tier manufacturers have started strategically stocking small-size panels, coupled with panel makers' active stocking; small-size panel shipments have remained high. According to research data from Sigmaintell, as of 22Q1, second-tier brands accounted for more than 55% of the 32" panel shipment, becoming the primary source of small-size panel purchases. However, the deterioration of the end market environment has made the recovery of the demand for small-size panels insufficient. The need for small-sized panels has dropped significantly after the pull of the second-tier market weakened.
Supply-side: Structural production cuts are imperative
Compared with the apparent pessimistic pattern of panel demand, the adjustment of the panel supply side is relatively implicit. So far, the panel makers have limited capacity control, and the overall supply remains high. Partial production cuts in the second quarter will be imperative.
The capacity of mainland panel makers occupies half of the panel industry, and it is necessary to find a balance point between market share and profit. The dividend of the epidemic has driven the industry's profitability to rise. The mainland panel makers, mainly BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC, have met the needs of upgrading, iteration, and expansion in the past two years. Panel makers are gearing up to fight for a more extensive territory and the right to speak. Although the market has turned downward, the panel makers have accumulated large profits early, and application panels such as IT are still profitable, which has obtained a specific buffer time for adjusting their capacity strategies. As the market environment continues to deteriorate, mainland panel makers are caught in the dilemma of increasing costs and declining share. For mainland panel makers in the second quarter, although cost and inventory pressures continue to grow, there will be some differentiation in capacity adjustment strategies. Leading manufacturers represented by BOE may maintain the scale of capacity and supply under the support of the profitability of IT, vehicle, and other applications. It is worth observing how the two major makers, TCL CSOT and HKC, which depend relatively heavily on the TV business, will adjust.
The Korean panel makers gradually withdraw from LCD TV in the strategic transformation process. They have turned their technology focus to OLED. Still, in the early stage of development, the scale of mass production is limited, the process is complex, and the production cost is high; the large-size OLED panel technology is still difficult to meet breakthroughs in the short term. As the price of LCD TV panels quickly falls below the coastline, Korean panel makers will accelerate their withdrawal from the LCD TV panel business. SDC will close all LCD production lines in South Korea at the end of May, and LGD plans further to reduce G7.5 capacity from the second quarter.
IT demand has fallen in Taiwan panel makers, and the pace of TV capacity transfer has slowed down. As old-fashioned LCD panel makers, Taiwan panel makers have certain advantages in the industry regarding product technology and cost competition. With the gradual rise of mainland panel makers and the increasingly clear prospects of the IT and innovative application markets, Taiwan panel makers have gradually shifted their large-size business development focus to the IT, automotive, and commercial display markets. However, the demand for IT has also declined significantly recently, and the pace of Taiwan panel makers' shift from TV to IT capacity has slowed down. In the second quarter, how the LCD TV supply capacity would perform also faces challenges.
According to Sigmaintell's calculation data, under the premise of the above analysis, the global LCD TV panel supply area in the second quarter increased by 3.8% YoY and 2.2% QoQ, and the supply scale remained at a high level. Therefore, Sigmaintell believes that the reverse supply and demand will not last for a long time, and panel makers must reduce partially or structurally.
Supply, Demand, and Price: Prices of Mainstream size will break cash costs
According to the data calculated by Sigmaintell's "Supply and Demand Model," in the second quarter, under the condition of end demand continues to slump and the supply side is still not effectively controlled, the global LCD TV panel market supply and demand ratio will reach 7.3% (area benchmark), sustained excess supply and demand. Panel prices maintain a downward trend, and expenses of various sizes may continue to decrease on a low basis, gradually breaking the cash cost by the end of the second quarter.
About the future: Overcoming difficulties together to upgrade the hedge contraction
According to the analysis of Sigmaintell, the dual impact of war and the epidemic is a severe challenge that the global industry has not encountered in the past 20 years, especially in today's significant global influence of China's supply chain and market. It can be said that the global industrial chain has reached a historic moment. If the war and the epidemic continue into the second half of the year, we believe the industrial chain should prepare for the worst situation. When demand is challenging to recover in the short term, upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain need to overcome the difficulties together. Specifically, Sigmaintell believes that:
1. TV makers should aim to broaden the user base and build momentum for growth.
The core of improving the supply and demand environment of the TV panel market is to promote the recovery of end market and brand demand. It is difficult for us to change the external economic climate. However, we can strengthen the cooperation between upstream and downstream of the supply chain by broadening the boundaries of application scenarios for TV products. In recent years, the rise and development of gaming and live broadcasting industries have driven the swift growth of related products. As one of the essential entertainment devices in the home, TV makers should resolutely abandon those unfriendly or fancy functions and develop user-friendly products to undertake operations such as games and live broadcasts, which would significantly benefit broadening the user base.
2. Panel makers should carefully control capacity supply and pursue quality market share.
The panel makers’ control of capacity is the most effective way to improve the supply and demand situation of the TV panel market in the short term. Indeed, adjusting the utilization rate is not an easy task, and it will also face risks such as increased losses and loss of market share due to the increase in single costs. However, simply pursuing the expansion of scale and ignoring the improvement of product quality, the loss can be paid for by customers in the upward stage, but after stepping into the downward market trend, the low-quality market share will increase the operating burden, and the bargaining strategy will also damage the market price system. Therefore, prudently assessing the excellent relationship between self-strength and market position, adjusting the scale of capacity supply properly, and improving product stickiness are issues that panel companies need to consider.
3. Supply and demand sides would push product upgrades by constructive methods to counter the adverse effects of contraction.
For a long time, the solid cyclical volatility of the TV panel market has hurt both supply and demand. We believe that during harsh environments, both the supply and demand sides need to stock up pragmatically and constructively ways in the upcoming peak season and form a joint force to promote product upgrades, which would be a feasible way to combat demand contraction.
中文：
群智研究｜全球电视面板需求超预期收缩，结构性减产及产品升级是良策
2022年世界形势复杂多变，包括俄乌局势冲突衍生的一系列经济问题持续发酵，各国疫情及抗疫政策的分化，美元加息通胀加剧等等因素交错在一起，对全球电视产业形成一波接一波的打击，对未来需求恢复的信心重建造成重创。寒冬已至，春意尚远，对于即将到来的全球备货旺季，电视面板市场能否恢复活力，如何恢复活力，我们审慎探究。
需求端：规模超预期收缩 大尺寸恢复动能增强
上半年，终端电视市场促销旺季尚未到来，来自政治、经济等层面的打击却接踵而至，市场需求陷入悲观泥潭，全球LCD TV面板市场需求呈现超预期收缩。
终端市场需求短期难以恢复。进入2022年，如果说美元加息、通胀加剧对市场的消极作用初见端倪，那么俄乌战争爆发则使得全球电视市场的悲观困境更加明朗。北美市场零售表现持续惨淡，欧洲市场需求持续低迷，新兴国家经济和需求难以期待恢复。叠加疫情散点爆发，中国市场原本在"618"促销季的带动下有望迎来弱增长，但经济受损影响需求恐在低位持续回落。整体来看，终端市场需求短期难以恢复，但群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，随着面板价格持续下探以及北美物流成本逐步稳定，大尺寸中长期需求恢复的动能逐渐增强。
渠道及品牌采购策略持续保守。终端市场需求短期难以恢复的预期下，渠道和品牌坚持按需采购，以降低终端库存风险。受到战争关联影响，国际品牌迅速收紧采购策略，包括三星电子从一季度末开始启动面板订单下修动作，LG电子二季度加严库存风险管控，面板采购保守。疫情管控对需求和物流的影响降低了中国品牌半年度大促的期待值，影响小米、TCL等头部品牌二季度保持“以销定产，以产定采”的面板采购策略。而北美方面，渠道对于“黑色星期五”的采购目标亦有延后，直至目前仍无大量有效订单达成。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据显示，二季度在国际品牌保守采购策略的影响下，全球Top9品牌电视面板采购数量为3700万片，同比下降15.9%，环比下降10.8%，品牌面板采购需求疲软。
二线市场面板需求降温，小尺寸需求回落。2021年四季度以来，得益于物流成本优势以及价格的快速回调，小尺寸面板备货需求呈现相对强劲的表现，以二线市场需求恢复为主，品牌需求增加为辅。二线厂商开启了对于小尺寸面板的策略性备货，加之面板厂的积极塞货，小尺寸面板出货维持高位水平。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调研数据显示，截至2022年一季度，32"英寸面板出货结构中，二线品牌占比逐渐超过55%，成为小尺寸面板的采购主力。然而，终端市场环境恶化使得小尺寸需求恢复的持续力不足，二线市场拉力转弱后小尺寸面板需求明显回落。
供应端：结构性减产势在必行
相较于面板需求明确的悲观形态，面板供应端的调整则显得相对含蓄。目前为止面板厂产能控制力度有限，整体供应依然维持高位，二季度部分减产将势在必行。
大陆面板厂产能占据面板产业半壁江山，在市场份额和利润中寻找平衡点。疫情红利带动行业盈利水平水涨船高，以京东方（BOE）、TCL华星（CSOT）、惠科（HKC）为主的大陆面板厂，近两年线体的升级迭代和扩充需求得以满足，面板厂摩拳擦掌以试图争取更大的版图和话语权。尽管市场转入下行，但面板厂前期累积了丰富利润以及IT等应用面板依然维持获利，为其产能策略调整争取到一定缓冲时间。随着市场环境持续恶化，大陆面板厂陷入成本增加和份额下降的两难。二季度对于大陆面板厂来说，尽管成本和库存压力持续增加，但产能调整策略将出现一定的分化。以京东方为代表的龙头厂商在IT、车载等应用的盈利支撑下或将维持产能供应规模。而对TV业务依赖相对较大的TCL华星和惠科两大厂商，将如何调整将值得观察。
韩国面板厂，战略转型进程中，逐步退出LCD TV。韩国厂商将技术重心转向OLED，但在发展初期量产规模有限，制程难度大，生产成本高，短期大尺寸OLED面板技术仍难以突围。随着LCD TV面板价格快速跌破成本线，韩国厂商将会加速退出LCD TV面板业务。其中SDC 将在5月底关闭韩国所有LCD产线，LGD 计划从二季度末开始进一步下调G7.5产能。
台湾面板厂，IT需求回落，TV产能转移步伐放缓。台湾厂商作为老牌LCD面板厂，其产品技术、成本竞争等方面在行业内均有一定优势。随着大陆面板厂逐渐崛起，加之IT及创新应用市场前景逐渐明朗，台湾面板厂逐渐将大尺寸业务发展重心转向IT、车载和商显市场。但近期IT等需求亦明显下滑，台湾面板厂从TV向IT产能转移的步伐有所放缓，二季度LCD TV供应产能何去何从也面临挑战。
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）测算数据显示，在以上分析的因素前提下，二季度全球LCD TV面板供应面积同比增加3.8%，环比增加2.2%，供应规模维持高位水平。因此，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，供需逆向而行将不可长久，面板厂商进行部分或结构性减产势在必行。
供需及价格：主流尺寸价格将破现金成本
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）“供需模型”测算数据显示，二季度在终端需求持续萎靡，供应端依然未见有效控制的环境下，全球LCD TV面板市场供需比将达7.3%（面积基准），持续供需过剩。面板价格维持下行趋势，各尺寸价格在低位基础上恐继续下探，在二季度末逐渐击破现金成本。
关于未来：共克时艰，以升级对冲收缩
群智咨询（Sigmaintell）分析认为，战争和疫情的双重影响是近20年来全球产业不曾遇到的严峻挑战，特别是在中国供应链和市场的全球影响力如此之大的今天。可以说全球产业链又走到了历史性时刻，如若战争和疫情持续到下半年，我们认为产业链应做好面对最坏情况的准备。在需求短期难以恢复的情况下，需要产业链上下游企业共克时艰，具体来说，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为：
1. 电视厂商应有的放矢，拓宽用户群体，为增长蓄力。
改善电视面板市场供需环境的核心是促进终端市场及品牌需求恢复。我们难以改变外围的经济环境，但可以通过拓宽电视产品的应用场景边界，增强供应链上下游的合作黏性。近年来，电竞、直播等产业的兴起和发展，带动了关联产品的迅速发展。电视作为家庭重要娱乐设备之一，电视厂商应果断摒弃不友好的、花哨的使用功能，开发对用户友好的产品承接游戏、直播等功能属性，对于拓宽用户群体大有裨益。
2. 面板厂商应谨慎控制产能供应，追求有质量的市场份额。
面板厂对产能的控制是短期内改善电视面板市场供需形势最有效的方法。诚然，调整稼动率并不是一件容易的事情，亦将面对单片成本增加导致亏损加剧、市场份额丢失等风险。但是，单纯追求规模的扩张，忽略产品质量的提升，市场上行阶段可由客户买单，但市场步入下行后，低质量的市场份额反而增加了经营负担，并且杀价的方式也将损害市场价格体系。因此，审慎评估自身实力和市场地位的合理关系，适时调整产能供应规模，提升产品黏性，是面板企业需要权衡和思考的问题。
3. 供需双方以建设性的方式推动产品升级，以升级对抗收缩的不利影响。
长久以来，电视面板市场的强周期波动性对供需双方均带来伤害。我们认为，在恶劣的环境中，需要供需双方以务实和建设性的方式，在即将到来的旺季备货，形成合力推动产品升级，这将是可以对抗需求收缩的可行方式。
洞察
