洞察发布时间: 2022/02/21 关注度: 248
01
Regional economic performance is differentiated, epidemic dividends are gradually fading, and global consumer electronics market demand is ushering in differentiation.
From the perspective of global macroeconomic performance, it is not difficult to find by tracking the IMF's forecast data on global GDP growth, that the economic performance of various regions in the world has been significantly differentiated in the post-epidemic era. The relatively strong economic performance of the developed economies has certain support for the global consumer electronics market, especially the demand for high-end products, while the performance of emerging economies is relatively less optimistic, showing a trend of differentiation.
In this context, the impact on the global consumer electronics market is multi-faceted. First of all, due to the pull of the economy, purchasing power can remain strong, and the commercial and educational market demand in the North American market will remain relatively strong. There is also a downside. Due to the promotion of consumer demand in the early stage, especially the resident assistance policy, the phenomenon of demand overdraft has already occurred, and consumer demand will be affected by demand overdraft, and the future trend is not optimistic.
China's economic growth will still face more severe challenges in 2022, which will be manifested in the following three aspects: First, exports are not optimistic, especially due to factors such as the subsidence of epidemic dividends, the increase in inflation risks, and the increase in costs caused by shipping congestion. As a result, exports are expected to show a gradual weakening trend in 2022. The second is the decline of infrastructure, and the growth trend of infrastructure driven by policies will gradually slow down. Third, the cyclical decline of China's real estate will have a certain impact on the domestic economy. Affected by this, China's domestic demand market will continue to be weak in 2022.
02
Market demand will show the characteristics of “weak at both ends and strong in the middle” in 2021, and will face demand shifting in 2022。
From the perspective of panel shipment performance of the four major mainstream applications such as TV, Monitor, Notebook, and Mobile in 2021, it shows the characteristics of "weak at both ends and strong in the middle". Looking forward to 2022, the shipments of smartphone panels are expected to remain relatively stable, while the shipments of large-size application panels such as Notebook, Monitor, and TV have experienced a YoY decline of varying degrees due to the fading dividends of the epidemic, but the shipment area of large-size panels performed significantly better than performance in terms of shipments. In terms of notebook shipment performance, it is expected that the shipment area in 2022 will decrease by 3.8% YoY, and the decline in the area is lower than the decline in quantity. The shipment area of Monitor and TV panels can still maintain relatively good growth. The area growth brought about by large size is still the most effective way for panel makers to reduce capacity.
Among large-size applications, TV panels are the absolute main force in digesting capacity. Based on the shipment area in the first three-quarters of 2021, TV panel shipments account for over 70% of all application panel shipments. In the future, it is expected that the global display panel market will still fluctuate periodically, and TV panels will still undertake the important task of reducing capacity. Beginning in the second half of 2020, panel makers' profitability has improved significantly due to the rise in panel prices, especially large-size panels. Currently, panel makers are still in a period of high profitability. Of course, it cannot be ignored that the price of large-size panels continues to decline. It is expected that they will face profit challenges in 2022. The profitability of panel makers will face differentiation, and some panel makers may fall into loss expectations.
03
Investment: The pace of LCD investment has slowed down significantly, and OLED investment remains positive.
From the perspective of new lines investment, investment in the global display panel market will show two characteristics: Firstly, the pace of investment in new LCD lines by panel makers has slowed down significantly; secondly, investment in OLED will remain active, but the direction of investment in OLED will have significant changes.
The change in the direction of OLED investment is embodied in the following aspects:
First of all, it turns out that panel makers are very active in investing in small-sized, especially flexible OLEDs, and the future investment strategy will shift from small-sized to medium-to-large-sized, and from low-generation (6th generation) to mid-to-high-generation lines. According to statistics, it is expected that three 8.5-generation OLED production lines will usher in mass production by 2025. At the same time, the change of OLED investment direction will also change from the original Flexible OLED to multi-technology, WOLED will continue to expand production, and QD-OLED capacity will continue to increase. The investment enthusiasm of Hybrid OLED At present, panel makers represented by Korean factories are very active in investment. According to statistics from Sigmaintell, it is expected that the global OLED display panel production area will still maintain growth of more than 10% by 2025, especially the gradual mass production of high-generation OLED production lines. It is expected that QD-OLED, HybridOLED will play an increasingly important role in the global OLED panel market.
Although panel makers' investment in LCD panels has slowed down, Chinese panel makers still maintain a positive strategy for the expansion of existing production lines, which will also drive the ongoing growth of the LCD panel supply area. According to Sigmaintell statistics, it is expected that the global display panel capacity will reach a high-speed growth of 12% YoY in 2022, and the overall capacity growth rate will reach the largest increase since 2013. Therefore, it can be predicted that the pressure on panel makers to reduce capacity in 2022 should not be underestimated.
04
Competitive landscape: The global display industry has formed a clear competitive landscape of "one superpower, many strong".
How will the global display industry pattern evolve? In 2021, an obvious "one superpower, many strong" competition pattern has been formed. BOE maintains a very clear leading advantage in all applications. In terms of the number of shipments and the market share of shipment area, the market share of each application market has exceeded 20%, and the leading edge is obvious. There is an imbalance in other panel makers. Most manufacturers have certain competitive advantages in some fields, but the overall competitiveness is still not strong. For example, TCL CSOT and HKC can maintain a market share of about 15% in the TV panel market, but it cannot be ignored that the performance on the IT application panel and the Mobile application panel is still relatively weak. Under this competitive landscape, it is expected that Chinese panel makers including TCL CSOT and HKC will adopt active strategies for applications other than TV in the future, including the expansion of existing production lines, and strive for opportunities to increase investment in new production lines.
Let's look at the evolution of the competitive landscape of OLED. At present, OLED technology has gradually gained popularity, especially in mobile phone applications. According to the statistics of Sigmaintell, the overall proportion of OLED in global smartphone shipments will reach nearly 40% in 2021, and will continue to grow in the future. , the proportion is expected to be close to 50% by 2025. In particular, the penetration rate of flexible OLEDs in mobile phone applications has shown a trend of significant growth. In 2021, the overall proportion will reach 22%, and it is expected that this proportion will continue to increase to 33% by 2023. From the perspective of panel makers, currently, flexible OLEDs are still dominated by Korean factories. SDC will account for more than 50% of the entire global flexible OLED market in 2021. Although it will shrink due to the increase in capacity from Chinese panel makers, it will also shrink in 2022. will maintain a share of about 50%. Chinese panel makers are particularly active in capacity expansion, especially BOE, and Chinese panel makers including TCL CSOT, Visionox, Tianma, and other Chinese panel makers are actively deploying flexible OLEDs. It is expected that the market share in 2022 will increase significantly compared to 2021.
05
Supply chain strategy: Panel makers focus on supply chain risk management, while brands seek diversified supply chain layouts.
Changes in the panel supply pattern have a huge impact on the global display industry, and will inevitably bring about changes in the industrial chain cooperation model. Under the current competitive landscape and environmental background, the global display industry should pay special attention to the industrial chain:
The first is the upstream material supply chain. The shortage of upstream materials, especially semiconductor materials, has accelerated the restructuring of the upstream supply chain in the past year or so. Panel makers pay more attention to the risk management of the supply chain. Among them, Chinese panel makers will continue to expand cooperation with local manufacturers. BOE is constantly introducing more local cooperative partners and will continue to strengthen its thinking on display semiconductor materials in the future. TCL CSOT will also introduce more local supply chains to prevent supply chain risks and actively seek cooperation with upstream manufacturers. From the downstream point of view, the diversified layout of the brand supply chain will become an obvious trend to prevent supply chain risks and achieve the purpose of supply chain balance.
06
The supply and demand of TV panels are loose, and the large size will accelerate.
Overall demand for TV panels is not optimistic, but there are structural opportunities in 2022. The brand's overall stocking strategy tends to be conservative, which affects the number of panel shipments to maintain a YoY downward trend. However, benefiting from the accelerated promotion of large-scale size, the shipment area continues to increase. At the same time, from the perspective of subdivisions, although the performance of the 8K market is mediocre, the shipment scale of OLED panels and high-frequency rate panels will expand significantly, which is worth looking forward to. Especially in 2022, Samsung Electronics and other leading TV makers will join the OLED camp, and Samsung Electronics will also carry out active and strategic cooperation with LGD in the WOLED field, which is expected to drive the global OLED TV and OLED TV panel shipments to continue to expand. According to statistics from Sigmaintell, global OLED TV panel shipments volume reached 7.6 millions , an increase of 72.2% YoY in 2021. It is expected that global OLED TV panel shipments volume will be more than 10 millions，an increase of 47.1% YoY in 2022.
Overall speaking, panel makers’ plan will gradually become differentiated, the supply scale of panel makers in mainland China will continue to increase, and Taiwanese makers and Korean makers will converge on TV plans to varying degrees.
In 2022, the overall LCD TV supply and demand environment will be loose. In the first quarter, there will be excess supply in the low-season, and panel prices will continue to decline, but the decline range will gradually narrow. In the second quarter, supply and demand will tend to balance, and panel prices are expected to stabilize.
07
Monitor panels demand a stable market, and user habits bring continuous structural upgrades.
Entering the post-epidemic era, the global monitor consumer demand will inevitably fall, but because of the good support of commercial demand, the overall monitor demand remains at a historically high level. There is a good willingness to pay for new monitor technologies, which will promote the continuous structural upgrading of the monitor market.
The gradual increase in the capacity of monitors, coupled with the growth of panel makers in the monitor supply planning, is expected to maintain a growth trend in the supply trend of monitor panels in 2022. Combined with the changes in the demand structure, the overall supply and demand situation in 2022 will be relatively loose. Therefore, it will lead to a continuous decline in the cost of monitor panels in at least the first half of 2022. Affected by the demand structure, the upgrade momentum of the Monitor market will slow down, but there are still representative markets with growth potential, such as Gaming, which is driven by the dual engines of 240Hz and OLED, and the Gaming market in 2022 can still maintain positive growth; Another example is Ultrawide. Under the influence of the active strategy of suppliers, the joint force of the entire supply chain will promote the positive growth of the Ultrawide market in 2022; the Curved market will enter a state of slow growth, with the hope that the market can find new growth momentum.
08
The demand for notebook panels has fallen rationally, and high-performance consumer demand has driven the growth of diversified technologies.
In the post-epidemic era, global consumer demand has declined as a whole, but we believe that the size of the notebook market after the decline in demand is still at a historically high level. At the same time, we should see opportunities brought about by changes in demand structure. This opportunity is mainly based on the consumer demand for high-performance products, so we believe that the notebook market upgrade structure has strong demand potential.
With the growth of Notebook capacity, especially the mid-to-high-end production capacity, the supply shortage of Notebooks will be significantly eased in 2022. From the purchasing point of view, there is a certain risk of saturation in the notebook market in 2022. Therefore, in 2022, we should be alert to the risk of oversupply. In this process, there is still a positive side, such as the accelerated trend of large-scale size and structural upgrading, etc. Accelerating this change will have a better impact on the market.
By sorting out the development potential of the five core technologies such as Gaming, OLED, LTPS, Oxide, and Mini LED in Notebook panels, Sigmaintell believes that, on the whole, in 2022, the situation of the coexistence and development of multiple new notebook technologies will become more competitive. Obviously, in this process, the technologies with the greatest development potential in 2022 are Gaming, OLED, and LTPS. Oxide has slowed down in the past two years due to the influence of certain factors, but we believe that after 2023, Oxide will New development will be ushered in; while Mini LED is affected by the high cost, and the future growth rate is limited.
09
Mobile panel market supply chain structure shift, the foldable track has great growth potential.
In 2021, under the panel supply pattern with the participation of BOE and Samsung Display, and more players, the competition in the smartphone panel market will show a white-hot trend, and the integration of the industry chain will also accelerate. In terms of technology types, the trend of the proportion of each technology type shows a differentiation phenomenon. Among them, the demand for flexible OLED continues to grow driven by the supply side. It is estimated that by 2025, the market share of flexible OLED smartphone panels will reach about 33%. In addition to the growth of flexible OLEDs, the penetration rates of a-Si, LTPS, and rigid OLEDs are all in a downward trend, forming a "hamburger" shape.
In recent years, smartphone set brands have maintained high inventory levels. As of the end of 2021, there will still be a lot of inventory in some technology-specific panels, but the demand for flexible OLED panels for high-end brands in 2022 will still show a growing trend. The structure of the supply chain is shifting to mainland China. At the same time, flexible OLED panel factories in mainland China will also grow rapidly, and the customer structure will be further enriched.
The foldable track has great growth potential in the next three years. Statistics from Sigmaintell show that the number of global foldable display panel shipments was close to 13 million units in 2021, and it is expected to be close to 80 million units by 2025. From 2019 to 2025, the compound annual growth rate will reach about 88%, showing a very high growth trend. From the perspective of manufacturers, Samsung Display, a Korean manufacturer, will continue to dominate for a long time, and the global foldable display panel market share will stabilize at around 80%. More and more Chinese panel makers are participating, such as BOE, TCL CSOT, Visionox, Tianma, and other manufacturers, but based on the current capacity planning and overall technical strength of Chinese panel makers, we believe that the scale of shipments is still relatively limited, and the proportion of Chinese panel makers will be around 20%.
10
Smart Cockpit drives demand upgrade, LTPS vehicle panel shipment will grow significantly.
According to Sigmaintell data, the cumulative shipments of vehicle display in the first three quarters of 2021 reached about 120 million pieces, and the annual shipments were about 164 million pieces, an increase of about 22% YoY. It is worth mentioning that the shipments of LTPS displays have increased significantly in 2021, which is mainly due to the increased requirements for the vehicle display in smart cockpits. At the same time, the shift to OLED panels in applications such as smartphones has also prompted more LTPS. LCD capacity is allocated to vehicle display. In 2021, the LTPS market share reached 12%. It is expected that shipments will reach 50 million by 2025, and the market share will also increase to about 23%.
In terms of technology, the development trend of the vehicle display towards large size and high resolution is also very clear. At the same time, in the future, there will be more and more car brands and models equipped with OLED. However, considering that it is more difficult to apply vehicle display technology, it is estimated that by 2025, the shipment of OLED vehicle displays will be about 3 million pieces. Mini LED backlight products have been mass-produced in other applications, but currently, there are relatively few applications in the automotive field. There are already models released, and mass production is expected to be achieved in 2022. Mini LED backlight is an upgrade of a-Si LCD, and each panel factory has a layout. Therefore, Sigmaintell predicts that by 2025, the shipment of Mini LED backlight vehicle display products will reach about 4 million pieces, increasing rapidly.
中文：
01
区域经济表现分化，疫情红利逐步消退，全球消费电子市场需求迎来分化
从全球宏观经济表现来看，通过追踪IMF对全球GDP增速的展望数据不难发现，进入后疫情时代全球各个区域的经济表现出现了明显的分化。发达经济体的经济相对强劲的表现对于全球消费电子市场尤其是高端产品的需求有一定的支撑，新兴经济体的表现则相对不太乐观，呈现分化的态势。
在此背景下，全球消费电子市场受到的影响是多方面的。首先因为受到经济的拉动，购买力依然可以维持强劲，北美市场的商用和教育市场需求会维持相对强劲。也有不利的一面，消费类的需求因为前期尤其是居民救助政策的推动，需求透支的现象已经发生，消费类的需求会受到需求透支的影响，未来的趋势不容乐观。
中国经济增长在2022年依然面临更加严峻的挑战，具体将表现在以下三个方面：一是出口不容乐观，尤其是出口受疫情红利消退、通胀风险增大、航运堵塞造成的成本增加等因素的影响，出口在2022年预计会呈现逐步减弱的趋势。二是基建的回落，基建受到政策驱动的增长趋势会逐渐放缓。三是中国房地产周期性回落，对国内经济将造成一定的冲击。受此影响，2022年中国内需市场将持续表现疲软。
02
2021年市场需求呈现“两端弱、中间强”特点，2022年将面临需求换挡
从面板出货表现来看，根据2021年TV、Monitor、Notebook、Mobile等四大主流应用的出货表现来看，呈现“两端弱、中间强”的特点。展望2022年，手机面板出货预计将维持相对稳定，而Notebook、Monitor、TV等大尺寸应用面板出货受到疫情红利消退的影响同比呈现不同幅度的下降，但大尺寸面板出货面积表现明显好于出货数量的表现。Notebook出货表现来看，预计2022年出货面积同比下降3.8%，面积降幅低于数量的降幅，Monitor、TV面板的出货面积依然能够维持相对不错的增长。大尺寸化带来的面积增长依然是面板厂商去化产能最有效的途径。
大尺寸应用当中，TV面板是去化产能的绝对主力，从2021年前三季度的出货面积来看，TV面板出货占所有应用面板出货面积的比重超70%，未来市场预计全球显示面板市场依然呈现周期性波动的特点，TV面板依旧承担重要的产能去化的任务。从2020年下半年开始因为面板价格尤其是大尺寸面板价格的上涨，带动面板厂商获利性明显好转，目前面板厂商依然在高获利的周期中。当然，也不能忽视目前大尺寸面板价格依然持续维持下降的趋势，预计2022年将面临获利挑战，面板厂商的盈利情况将面临分化，部分面板厂商或将陷入亏损预期。
03
产能投资：LCD投资步伐明显放缓，OLED投资保持积极
从产能投资角度看，全球显示面板市场投资将呈现两个方向的特点：一是面板厂商对LCD新线投资步伐明显放缓；二是对OLED的投资依然保持积极，但是对OLED投资的方向会发生明显变化。
OLED投资方向转变具体表现在以下几个方面：
首先，原来面板厂商对于小尺寸尤其是柔性OLED投资很积极，未来的投资策略将从小尺寸转向中大尺寸，由低世代（6代）向中高世代线转变。根据统计数据显示，预计到2025年将有三条8.5代OLED产线迎来量产。同时，OLED投资方向的转变还将从原来的Flexible OLED向多元技术转变，WOLED会持续扩产，QD-OLED产能会呈现持续的增加。Hybrid OLED的投资热情目前以韩厂为代表的面板厂商投资非常积极。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）的统计数据显示，预计到2025年全球OLED显示面板产能面积依然维持10%以上的增长，尤其是高世代OLED产线逐步量产，预计从2023年开始QD-OLED、HybridOLED等将会在全球OLED面板市场扮演越来越重要的角色。
虽然面板厂商对LCD面板的投资步伐有所放缓，但中国面板厂商对既有产线扩产依然保持积极策略，扩产同样会带动LCD面板的供应面积持续增长，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）的统计数据，预计2022年全球显示面板产能同比将达到12%的高速增长，总体产能增速达到2013年以来最大增幅，因此可以预判面板厂商在2022年产能去化压力不容小觑。
04
竞争格局：全球显示产业已形成明显的“一超多强”竞争格局
全球显示产业格局将会如何演变？2021年已经形成了明显“一超多强”的竞争格局。京东方在全应用当中保持非常明显领先的优势，各个应用市场无论是从出货数量、出货面积的市占率表现来看均已超过了20%，领先优势明显。其他面板厂商存在不平衡现象，大部分厂商在部分领域具备一定的竞争优势，但是整体的竞争力依然不强，比如TCL华星、惠科在TV面板市场市占率能够维持在15%左右，但也不容忽视在IT应用面板、Mobile应用面板上的表现依然相对较弱。在此竞争格局下，预计包括TCL华星、惠科等中国面板厂商未来对TV以外的应用将采取积极的策略，包括现有产线的扩能扩充，争取机会增加新产线投资。
再来看OLED的竞争格局的演变。目前OLED技术尤其是在手机应用上逐步得到了普及，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）的统计数据，全球智能手机出货数量当中2021年OLED的整体占比达到了近40%，未来呈现持续增长态势，预计到2025年这一比重将接近50%。尤以柔性OLED在手机应用中的渗透率呈现明显增长的态势，2021年整体占比达到了22%，预计到2023年这一占比将会持续提升到33%。面板厂商来看，目前柔性OLED依然以韩厂为主导，三星显示在整个全球柔性OLED市场当中占比2021年超过50%，虽然受到来自中国面板厂商产能的增加将会有所收缩，2022年也会维持50%左右的份额。中国面板厂商产能扩充尤为积极，尤其是京东方以及包括TCL华星、维信诺、天马等中国面板厂商对柔性OLED积极布局，预计2022年市场份额相比2021年均有明显的提升。
05
供应链策略：面板厂注重供应链风险管理，品牌厂寻求供应链多元化布局
面板供应格局的变化对全球显示产业带来巨大影响，势必会带来产业链合作模式的变化，当前的竞争格局及环境背景下，全球显示产业在产业链方面应该尤其关注：
首先是上游材料供应链，上游材料尤其是半导体材料在过去一年多的时间缺货加速了上游供应链的重构，面板厂商更加注重供应链的风险管理，其中中国面板厂商则会持续扩大与本土厂商的合作。京东方在不断引入更多本土合作厂商，未来在显示半导体材料上将会不断的强化思维；TCL华星也会引入更多的本土供应链，防范供应链风险同时也在积极寻求与上游厂商达成合作共赢的局面。下游来看，品牌供应链多元化布局将会成为明显的趋势，以此防范供应链风险，达到供应链平衡的目的。
06
TV面板供需宽松，大尺寸化将加速
2022，TV面板整体需求不容乐观，但存结构性机会。品牌整体备货策略趋向保守，影响面板出货数量维持同比下降趋势，但是得益于大尺寸化加速推进，出货面积维持增加。同时，从细分赛道来看，尽管8K市场表现平平，但是OLED面板及高刷新率面板出货规模都将明显扩大，值得期待。尤其是2022年因三星电子等头部TV厂商加入OLED阵营，同时三星电子也将与LGD在WOLED领域展开积极和战略的合作，将有望带动全球OLED TV以及OLED TV面板的出货规模持续扩大。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据，2021年OLED TV面板出货数量达到760万台，同比增长72.2%，预计2022年全球OLEDTV面板出货规模将会超过一千万台，同比增长将达到47.1%。
整体来看，2022年各面板厂规划逐渐走向分化，中国大陆面板厂供应规模持续增加，台湾厂商及韩国厂商对TV规划则不同程度收敛。
2022年整体LCD TV供需环境表现宽松，其中一季度备货淡季供应过剩，面板价格持续下行，但降幅逐渐收窄；二季度供需趋向平衡，面板价格有望企稳。
07
Monitor面板需求大盘稳定，用户习惯带来持续性结构升级
进入后疫情时代，全球显示器的消费需求不可避免地陷入滑落，但是因为有商用需求的良好支撑，整体显示器的需求大盘仍然维持在历史较高水位，而且在这一历史阶段，我们发现消费者对于显示器新技术的付费拥有较好的意愿，这将推动显示器市场拥有持续性的结构升级动力。
显示器的产能逐步增加，加之面板厂商在显示器供应规划方面的成长，预计2022年的显示器面板在供应趋势上将保持增长态势。结合需求结构的变化，2022年的供需情况整体较为宽松，因此，它将会促使2022年至少在上半年，显示器面板成本仍将处于持续下探状态。受需求结构的影响，Monitor市场升级动力将有所减缓，但其中仍有具有增长潜力的代表性市场，如Gaming，以240Hz和OLED的双引擎拉动，2022年的Gaming市场仍能保持积极增长；再如Ultrawide，在供应商的积极策略影响下，整个供应链合力将推动Ultrawide市场2022年能够积极成长；Curved曲面市场则将进入慢增长状态，以期市场能够寻找到新的增长动能。
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Notebook面板需求理性回落 高性能消费需求推动多元技术增长
后疫情时代，全球消费需求整体回落，但我们认为，需求回落后的笔电市场规模仍然处于历史较高水位，同时，我们应看到需求结构变化所带来的机会。这种机会主要以消费者对于高性能产品的消费需求，因此我们认为Notebook这一市场升级结构是拥有强大的需求潜力的。
伴随着Notebook产能，尤其是中高阶产能的增长，2022年Notebook的供应紧张问题将明显缓解。从采购端来看，2022年Notebook市场存在一定的饱和的风险，因此，2022年应警惕供过于求的风险。这一过程中，仍有向好的一面，如大尺寸化趋势加快、结构升级等，加快这种变化将对市场产生较好影响。
通过梳理Notebook面板中Gaming、OLED、LTPS、Oxide、Mini LED等五大核心技术的发展潜力，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）认为，整体而言，2022年Notebook多元新技术并存发展竞争的形势会变得更加明显，在这一过程当中，2022年拥有最大发展潜能的技术分别是Gaming、OLED和LTPS；Oxide因受特定因素的影响，近两年发展有所趋缓，但我们认为进入2023年以后，Oxide将迎来新的发展；而Mini LED受成本居高不下的影响，未来的增幅有限。
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Mobile面板市场供应链结构转移 可折叠赛道增长潜力大
2021年，在京东方和三星显示双巨头及更多玩家参与的面板供应格局下，智能手机面板市场竞争呈现白热化趋势，产业链整合也将加速。分技术类型来看，各技术类型的占比趋势呈现分化现象，其中，柔性OLED的需求在供应侧的推动下持续增长，预计到2025年，柔性OLED智能手机面板市占率将达到33%左右；除柔性OLED增长之外，a-Si、LTPS、刚性OLED等渗透率均处于下降趋势，形成“汉堡包”的形状。
近年来智能手机终端品牌维持高库存水位运营，截至2021年年底仍有部分技术别面板存在大量库存，但高端品牌2022年的柔性OLED面板需求仍将呈现增长趋势。供应链的结构正在向中国大陆转移，同时，中国大陆柔性OLED面板厂也将快速成长，客户结构也将进一步丰富。
未来3年可折叠赛道增长潜力大，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）统计数据显示，2021年全球折叠显示面板出货数量将接近1300万台，预计到2025年将会接近8000万台，2019到2025年复合增长率将达到约88%，呈现非常高速增长的态势。分厂商来看，较长时间内依然会以韩厂三星显示为主导，全球可折叠显示面板市场中的份额将会稳定在80%左右，中国面板厂商也有越来越多厂商的参与，如京东方、TCL华星、维信诺和天马等厂商，但是以目前中国面板厂商产能规划和整体技术实力来看，我们认为出货规模依然相对有限，中国面板厂商占比将在20%左右。
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智能座舱推动需求升级，LTPS车载面板出货将显著增长
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，2021年前三季度的车载显示屏累计出货量达1.2亿片左右，全年出货量约1.64亿片左右，同比增长约22%。值得一提的是，LTPS显示屏在2021年的出货量显著增长，这主要得益于智能座舱对于车载显示屏要求的提升，同时，由于智能手机等应用转向OLED面板，也促使更多LTPS LCD产能分配到车载显示，2021年LTPS市场份额达到12%，预计到2025年出货量将达到5000万片，市场份额也将提升至23%左右。
在技术方向上，车载显示朝着大尺寸和高分辨率发展的态势也十分明确。同时，未来，搭载OLED的车载显示汽车品牌及车型也将越来越多，但考虑到应用车载的显示技术难度更大，预计到2025年，OLED车载显示屏的出货量约为300万片。Mini LED背光产品在其他应用已有量产，目前在车载领域应用还比较少，已有车型在发布，预计2022年实现量产。Mini LED背光作为a-Si LCD的升级，各家面板厂均有所布局，因此，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）预计，到2025年，Mini LED背光的车载显示产品出货量将达到400万片左右，增长迅速。
