洞察发布时间: 2022/02/11 关注度: 228
In the first half of 2021, affected by the strong end demand and the continuous shortage of upstream supply chain materials such as driver IC, the display market was in short supply. In the second half of 2021, market demand gradually returned to rationality, LCD panels ended the longest upward cycle in history, and the prices of various application products fell successively. Looking at the whole year, according to preliminary statistics from Sigmaintell, the revenue scale of the global new display industry in 2021 has reached an all-time high, reaching about US$136.6 billion, an increase of about 18.2% YoY.
Competitive landscape: The overall results in 2021 are impressive, and the competitive landscape will gradually diverge in 2022.
BOE - Balanced layout, with display revenue surpassing SDC to rank first.
In 2021, BOE's performance is extremely conspicuous. The market share of display revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 is about 20.5%, surpassing SDC and ranking first in the world. BOE is the world's largest supplier of LCD. Although the price of LCD TV panels fell sharply in the second half of 2021, due to the diversification of its technology and product applications, especially flexible OLED panel shipments exceeded 1,000 in December 2021. In addition, various application markets such as smartphones, notebooks, monitors, and tablets have a balanced layout, and at the same time, diversified application scenarios have been developed in the commercial display field. In particular, the continued strong demand for PCs such as notebooks and monitors in the second half of the year offset the adverse effect of the decline in the prosperity of LCD TV panels. Following the market trend, BOE continues to optimize the product structure, actively expand the application of new scenarios such as the IoT, and gradually improve the efficiency of supply chain management, and its comprehensive competitiveness continued to strengthen. It is expected that in 2022, the revenue scale of BOE will show a steady upward trend.
SDC - OLED small and medium-size seeks diversification, and large-scale development is gaining momentum.
SDC, the market share of display revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 is about 20.2%, and its ranking has slipped to second place in the world. After SDC announced its withdrawal from the LCD panel business in 2020 (except for continuing to supply a small number of group brands), it began to focus on the OLED display business, especially smartphone panels, which accounted for more than 90% of its overall revenue. Benefiting from its advantages in new technologies including low-temperature polycrystalline oxide (LTPO) and yield, SDC continues to lead the global OLED display market share. In 2021, SDC OLED smartphone display shipments exceed 450 million pieces, with a market share of about 70.2%. However, with the expansion of flexible OLED capacity and technological development in mainland China, SDC‘s advantages in small and medium-sized applications are being squeezed. Therefore, SDC will actively diversify its OLED products, and will gradually enrich its product line and customer base with laptops and tablet PCs as its main focus. In addition, after withdrawing from the large-size LCD display market, SDC has turned to QD-OLED and achieved mass production and shipment in November 2021. At present, SDC (OLED) is in a major strategic transition period. The gradual development of OLED display in all applications will bring strong competitive advantages in the long run.
LGD — OLED is the world leader in large size, but the small size is under attack.
The panel market share of LGD in the first three quarters was about 15.1%, ranking third in the world. According to data from Sigmaintell, although some LCD lines have been shut down, in the first three quarters of 2021, LGD's LCD display business revenue still accounted for more than half of its total revenue. In terms of OLED, in 2021, smartphone and TV display revenue accounted for more than 90%. Smartphones were mainly orders from Apple. In terms of OLED TV, in 2021, LGD still took the lead, ranking first in both shipments and revenue. Looking forward to 2022, as more brands, mainly Samsung Electronics, introduce their OLED TV products, its OLED TV revenue is expected to maintain a growth trend; in terms of profits, affected by the decline in LCD TV prices, its 2022 profit will face certain pressure. In the next 3-5 years, with the increase in the penetration rate of OLED technology, the improvement of Samsung's QD-OLED, and the maturity of the large-scale OLED technology layout in mainland China, the industrial structure of large-scale OLED will gradually change.
In general, the overall performance of panel makers in 2021 is outstanding. However, as the global display industry enters the post-epidemic period in 2022, the performance of global panel makers in 2022 will be differentiated, and the performance will depend on their technical capabilities, product layout, Technological upgrading speed, and development strategy.
Product Structure: Smartphone display revenue is stable, and TV/IT/Auto are the top three in terms of growth.
*The revenue data for 21Q4 are preliminary statistics, and the possibility of subsequent slight adjustments cannot be ruled out.
Smartphone Display
According to the survey data of Sigmaintell, the global smartphone display shipments in 2021 were about 1.94 billion pieces (Open Cell), an increase of about 2.6% YoY. The YoY growth rate of shipments throughout the year showed a trend of "high before and then low". At the same time, in 2021, the global OLED smartphone display shipments were 640 million, an increase of 31.1% YoY; of which flexible OLED shipments were 350 million, an increase of 43.6% YoY. With the gradual release of the capacity of domestic OLED panel factories, the market share of domestic OLED panel factories has also gradually increased, showing the characteristics of "small steps and fast running". In 2021, the OLED panel shipments of mainland Chinese manufacturers were about 140 million units, an increase of about 60.1% YoY, and the growth rate is twice the global average growth rate. Affected by the increase in the price of driver IC and the increase in the proportion of high-end OLED products, the annual revenue of smartphone display panels exceeded US$50 billion for the first time, reaching US$52.4 billion, an increase of about 5.8% YoY.
TV Display
Benefiting from the increase in demand and the sharp rise in prices in the first half of 2021, according to preliminary statistics from Sigmaintell, the revenue of the global TV display market in 2021 was approximately US$42.9 billion, an increase of about 25.4% YoY. The proportion rose to more than 30%. Looking forward to 2022, due to the significant profit fluctuations caused by the cyclical fluctuations in TV LCD panel prices, coupled with the impact of demand overdrafts on the weak end market demand, the capacity strategy of panel makers has shifted to IT products and commercial display products. It is estimated that the TV display revenue scale in 2022 will show a steady downward trend.
Notebook Display
In the post-epidemic era, the consumption habits of working at home and gaming and entertainment have become mainstream, which has kept the notebook market alive. According to preliminary statistics from Sigmaintell, the global notebook panel market showed a positive growth trend in 2021. The overall revenue was about US$15.9 billion, an increase of about 50.9% YoY, and the revenue share exceeded 10%, second only to smartphones and TVs. Looking forward to 2022, the upgrade of the notebook market structure will be accelerated, the low-end demand will shrink, and the mid-to-high-end market demand will be strong. The iteration of new products will further promote the demand for replacement in the consumer market. The revenue performance of panel makers will also be differentiated.
Monitor Display
In the first three quarters of 2021, the monitor panel was particularly affected by the insufficient supply of driver ICs, hampering its shipment and revenue growth. In the second half of the year, consumer demand and TV took the lead in declining, making the overall revenue growth in 2021 weaker than that of notebook panels, with an increase of about 26.9% YoY. Looking forward to 2022, monitor panels will bear the brunt of the transfer of LCD TV capacity. The imbalance between supply growth and demand growth will bring dual pressures on price and revenue growth. It is expected that panel makers will be under greater downward pressure in the monitordisplay applications.
Technology Trends: LCD and OLED jointly drive revenue growth.
*The revenue data for 21Q4 are preliminary statistics, and the possibility of subsequent slight adjustments cannot be ruled out.
In 2021, the global display revenue was US$136.6 billion, an increase of about 18.2% YoY. The main growth driver comes from the combined effect of a-Si LCD and OLED. Among them, a-Si LCD grew by about 15.8% YoY in 2021, while the growth rate of OLED reached 34.6%. Looking forward to 2022, due to the impact of demand overdraft, the demand for low-end LCD will decline; while OLED revenue will maintain strong growth. Specifically, a-Si LCD panels are declining, LTPS LCD panels are stable, and OLED panels are growing. Global display revenue will show a slight decline in 2022.
a-Si LCD
According to preliminary statistics from Sigmaintell, the global a-Si LCD revenue in 2021 will be approximately US$78.5 billion, an increase of about 15.8% YoY. With the gradual penetration of mid-to-high-end IT and TV product markets, the proportion of a-Si panel revenue is declining year by year, accounting for about 57.4% in 2021. It is expected that both total revenue and revenue proportion will show a downward trend in 2022.
LTPS LCD
With the popularity of flexible OLEDs in the high-end smartphone market, the product layout of LTPS and rigid OLEDs is also changing. Rigid OLED is shifting to the IT product market, and it continues to compete with LTPS LCD. The two share the increment brought by the consumption upgrade in the PC market. However, with the growth of the notebook market is difficult to offset the decline of LTPS in the smartphone market. In 2021, the global LTPS (LCD) revenue will be approximately US$13.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 6.7%. It is expected that OLED panels will continue to be impacted in 2022, and the overall revenue may continue to decline.
OLED
Driven by new technologies such as low power consumption, thinness, and low-temperature polycrystalline oxide (LTPO), under-display cameras, COE, and foldable, end customers such as Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, and Huawei have increased the introduction of OLED. The overall revenue of OLED shows a continuous growth trend, including smartphones, tablets, notebooks, and TV products, and the penetration ratio of OLED is gradually expanding. In 2021, the global revenue of OLED display panels was about US$40.7 billion, an increase of about 34.6% YoY. Among them, rigid OLED, relying on their performance and gradually reducing cost advantages, have a significant revenue growth rate in the notebook market. Medium and large-sized OLED panels represented by oxide backplane technology also achieved sales of about US$4.7 billion, an increase of about 65.9% YoY. With the gradual penetration of large-size OLED in set products such as TVs, the follow-up is still showing an upward trend.
Summary and suggestions: 2022 will be the year of market shifting and the year of structural upgrading.
In 2022, global display capacity will continue to grow, and in the post-epidemic era, demand will be overdrawn in advance, and panel supply and demand will gradually loosen. Under the weakened market, the pressure on panel makers to maintain high profitability will continue to increase. In addition, changes in the competitive landscape are driving the reallocation of industrial resources, and the supply chain structure of set brands is also facing differentiation and reorganization. However, following the context of market and industrial laws, we believe that 2022 will be a great year for structural upgrading. In this regard, Sigmaintell recommends:
1. Based on improving efficiency, promote product upgrades with technological upgrades. At present, the market demand in developed countries is an overdraft, the purchasing power of consumers in developing countries is declining, and the global low-end demand is sluggish. The sluggish low-end demand will inevitably bring about the risk of a decline in the broader market. To stimulate low-end demand, it is necessary to rely on prices. Under the trend of rising costs, it is difficult to reduce prices and lose profits, which is a long-term solution. Therefore, product upgrades should be driven by technological upgrades, and the demand for replacement should be driven by product upgrades, thereby promoting the transformation of the industrial structure from a cyclical to a growth-oriented model.
2. Dig deep into market segments and do a good job in scene innovation. In the post-epidemic period, the trend of segmentation of user scenarios has become more and more obvious, and the segmentation of scenarios in the fields of office, gaming, entertainment, and the professional display has become more and more abundant; the concept of the intelligent cockpit has led to the rise of multiple vehicle displays. Doing a good job in product selection and strategy optimization in market segments to stimulate user potential is particularly important for ensuring and improving profitability under market differentiation.
3. Be wary of blind expansion. In 2022, the market will shift gears, and the growth rate will decline as a general trend. Enterprises should improve their organizational flexibility and adaptability, coordinate the upper and lower supply chains, respond to changing trends in market demand, and avoid the double adverse effects of blind expansion on market order and their operations.
中文：
2021年上半年，受到旺盛的终端需求和驱动IC等上游供应链材料持续紧缺的影响，显示面板市场呈现供不应求的格局，面板价格持续上涨，全球各面板厂商营收均创历史新高。进入到2021年下半年，市场需求逐渐回归理性，液晶面板结束了历史上最长的上行周期，各应用产品价格先后回落。综合全年来看，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）初步统计数据显示，2021年全球新型显示面板行业营收规模创造了历史最高水位，达到约1366亿美元，同比增长约18.2%。
竞争格局篇：2021年整体成绩斐然，2022年竞争格局逐渐分化
京东方（BOE）— 均衡布局，面板营收超越三星显示排名第一
2021年京东方（BOE）业绩极为亮眼，2021年前三季度面板营收市占率约20.5%，超越三星显示（SDC），排名全球第一。京东方（BOE）是全球最大的液晶面板供应商，虽然2021年下半年液晶电视面板价格大幅下跌，但由于其技术和产品应用多元化，尤其是柔性OLED面板出货量在2021年12月突破千万，此外，智能手机、笔记本、显示器、平板电脑等各应用市场有均衡布局，同时在商用显示领域开拓了多元应用场景，特别是下半年笔记本和显示器等PC类需求持续强劲，抵消了LCD TV面板景气度下降的不利影响。京东方（BOE）跟随市场大盘趋势，持续优化产品结构，积极拓展物联网等新场景应用落地，同时逐步提升供应链管理效率，使得其综合竞争力持续走强，预计2022年京东方（BOE）营收规模将呈现稳中走高趋势。
三星显示（SDC）— OLED中小尺寸谋求多元化，大尺寸发展蓄力
三星显示（SDC），2021年前三季度面板营收市占率约为20.2%，排名下滑至全球第二位。三星显示（SDC）在2020年宣布退出液晶面板业务后（除继续少量供应集团品牌以外），开始专注OLED面板业务，尤以智能手机面板占比较大，占到三星显示（SDC）整体营收的9成以上。其中受益于在新技术包括低温多晶氧化物（LTPO）及良率方面的优势，三星显示（SDC）在全球OLED面板市场份额持续领先。2021年三星显示（SDC）OLED智能手机面板出货量突破4.5亿片，市场占有率约为70.2%，但是，随着中国大陆柔性OLED产能扩充和技术发展，三星显示（SDC）在中小尺寸应用的优势正在受到挤压。因此，三星显示（SDC）将积极布局OLED产品多元化方向，以笔记本电脑和平板电脑为主攻方向的产品线和客户基础将逐步丰富。此外，在退出大尺寸LCD面板市场后，三星显示（SDC）转向布局QD-OLED，并于2021年11月实现量产出货。目前三星显示（OLED）处于重大战略转换期，随着OLED显示面板在全应用逐步展开，长期将带来较强的竞争优势。
LGD — OLED大尺寸全球领先，小尺寸遭遇上下夹击
LGD前三季度面板市占率约15.1%，全球排名第三。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）数据显示，虽然关停了部分液晶面板产线，2021年前三季度，LGD液晶面板业务营收在其总营收中占比依然过半，而在OLED方面，2021年，智能手机和TV业务营收占比超90%。智能手机方面，主要是来自苹果的订单。而在OLED TV方面，2021年LGD仍独占鳌头，出货量和营收均稳居第一。展望2022年，随着以三星电子为主的更多品牌导入其OLED TV产品，预计其OLED TV的营收将保持增长态势；利润方面，受到LCD TV价格下滑的影响，其2022年盈利将面临一定的压力。未来3-5年，随着OLED技术渗透率提升，三星QD-OLED的改善，以及中国大陆大尺寸OLED技术布局成熟，大尺寸OLED的产业格局也将逐渐发生变化。
综合而言，2021年面板厂商整体成绩亮眼，然而2022年随着全球显示面板业进入后疫情期，2022年全球面板厂商的业绩将出现分化，业绩表现将取决于其技术能力、产品布局、技术升级速度和发展战略。
产品结构篇：智能手机面板营收稳健，TV/IT/Auto为增长“三杰”
智能手机面板
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）调查数据显示，2021年全球智能手机面板出货约19.4亿片（Open Cell统计口径），同比增长约2.6%。全年出货同比增速呈现“前高后低”趋势。与此同时，2021年全球OLED智能手机面板出货6.4亿片，同比上升31.1%；其中柔性OLED出货3.5亿，同比上升43.6%。随着国内OLED面板厂产能的逐步释放，国内OLED面板厂的市场份额也逐步提升，总体呈现“小步快跑” 特点。2021年中国大陆厂商的OLED面板出货量约1.4亿片，同比增长约60.1%，增长幅度两倍于全球平均增幅。受到驱动芯片涨价以及OLED高阶产品比重增加的影响，全年智能手机显示面板营收首次超过500亿美金，达到524亿美金，同比增长约5.8%。
TV面板
得益于2021年上半年需求的提升和价格的大幅上涨，根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）初步统计数据，2021年全球TV面板市场营收规模约为429亿美金，同比增加约25.4%，营收占比回升至30%以上。展望2022年，由于TV液晶面板价格周期性波动剧烈带来的盈利波动显著，加之需求透支影响终端市场需求疲软，面板厂商产能策略向IT产品和商显产品转移，预计2022年TV面板营收规模呈现稳中下降趋势。
笔记本电脑面板
进入后疫情时代居家办公、游戏娱乐的消费习惯成为主流，使笔电市场持续保持活力。根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）初步统计数据，2021年全球笔电面板市场呈现积极增长态势，整体营收约为159亿美金，同比增长约50.9%，营收占比突破10%，仅次于智能手机和TV。展望2022年，笔电市场结构升级将加快，低端需求萎缩，中高端市场需求旺盛，新产品迭代将进一步促进消费市场换机需求，而面板厂商的营收表现也将随之分化。
显示器面板
2021年前三季度，显示器面板受到驱动IC供应不足的影响尤为明显，掣肘了其出货和营收增长。进入下半年，消费需求与TV先后率先下滑，使得2021年整体营收增长弱于笔记本面板，同比增长约26.9%。展望2022年，显示器面板为承载LCD TV产能转移首当其冲的应用，供应增长与需求增长的不平衡将给价格和营收增长带来双重压力，预计面板厂商在显示器面板应用将承受较大下滑压力。
技术趋势篇：LCD、OLED共同带动营收增长
2021年全球显示面板营收1366亿美金，同比增长约18.2%，主要增长动力来自a-Si LCD和OLED共同作用。其中，a-Si LCD在2021年同比增长约15.8%，而OLED增速达34.6%。展望2022年，受到需求透支影响，低端LCD需求回落；而OLED营收保持强劲增长。具体来看，a-Si LCD面板下滑、LTPS LCD面板稳定、OLED面板增长，全球显示面板营收2022年呈小幅下滑的态势。
a-Si LCD
根据群智咨询（Sigmaintell）初步统计数据，2021年全球a-Si LCD的营收规模约为785亿美金，同比增长约15.8%，然而随着Oxide LCD、LTPS LCD和OLED技术在智能手机市场和中高端IT、TV产品市场的逐渐渗透，a-Si面板营收占比正在逐年下降，2021年占比约为57.4%，预计2022年营收总额和营收占比均将呈现下滑态势。
LTPS LCD
随着柔性OLED在高端智能手机市场上的普及，LTPS和刚性OLED产品布局也在发生着变化。刚性OLED向IT产品市场转移，与LTPS LCD继续形成竞争，两者共同分食PC市场消费升级带来的增量。然而笔电市场的增长难以抵消LTPS在智能手机市场的下滑，2021年全球LTPS(LCD) 的营收规模约为134亿美金，同比下降约6.7%。预计2022年将持续受到OLED面板带来的冲击，整体营收恐呈现持续下降趋势。
OLED
在低功耗、轻薄、以及低温多晶氧化物（LTPO）、屏下摄像头、去偏光片（COE）、折叠等新技术的驱动下，苹果、三星、小米、华为等终端客户增加OLED的导入力度，OLED的整体营收呈现持续增长趋势，包括智能手机、平板电脑、笔记本电脑以及电视产品，OLED的渗透比重逐步扩大。2021年全球OLED显示面板的营收规模约为407亿美金，同比增长约34.6%，其中刚性OLED，依托其性能和逐渐降低的成本优势，在笔电市场营收增速显著。以氧化物（Oxide）背板技术为代表的中大尺寸OLED面板也实现了约47亿美金的销售额，同比增长约65.9%。随着大尺寸OLED在电视等终端产品的逐步渗透，后续仍然呈现上升趋势。
总结建议篇：2022年将是市场换挡之年，亦是结构升级大年
2022年全球面板产能继续增长，而进入后疫情时代，需求被提前透支，面板供需逐渐宽松，在大盘疲软的态势下，面板厂商继续维持高盈利水平的压力将不断增加。此外，竞争格局变化推动着产业资源重新分配，终端品牌的供应链结构也面临分化和重组。然而依循市场和产业规律的脉络，我们认为2022年是结构升级大年。对此，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）建议：
1. 在提升效率基础上，以技术升级推动产品升级。当前发达国家市场需求透支，发展中国家消费者购买力下降，全球低端需求低迷。低端需求低迷势必带来大盘下滑的风险，若要刺激低端需求则要靠价格，在成本上涨的趋势下，降价损失盈利，难为长久之计。因此，应通过技术升级带动产品升级，通过产品升级拉动更新换代需求，进而推动产业结构从周期型转向成长型模式转变。
2. 深挖细分市场，做好场景创新。后疫情期用户场景细分化趋势愈加明显，办公、电竞、娱乐、专业显示等领域内细分化场景愈加丰富；智能座舱概念下带动多元车载显示兴起。做好细分市场的产品选择与策略优化，激发用户潜力，对于市场分化下确保和提升盈利能力尤为重要。
3. 警惕盲目扩张规模。2022年市场换挡，增速下降为大势，企业应提高组织灵活应变能力，协同上下供应链，响应市场需求变化趋势，避免盲目扩张对市场秩序和自身经营的双重不利影响。
